How Are My Baseball Predictions Going?

Without getting into my division predictions, I want to share my thoughts on the different award contenders.  I will try not to use many statistics since I know that freaks some people out…

Let us look at the American League first.
I believe it comes down to these guys:  Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, and Evan Longoria.  As most of you know I picked Longoria in the preseason, so I am still pulling for him.  I know most people would say Hamilton, but I would have to give it to Cano.  He is giving you similar production, but from the second-base position.

Cy Young
I picked Felix Hernandez and I honestly think he could end up winning, oh wait, he has a 9-10 record.  That does not help his cause, even though he is still one of the best pitchers in the AL.  The contenders:  Clay Buckholz, David Price, Cliff Lee, and CC Sabathia.  Lee has the unfortunate record as well, but he has been the best pitcher this season in the AL.  Sabathia will probably win because he might end up with 20 wins, but if the Rays win the division, I could see David Price getting the award.

I picked Austin Jackson and he could win it.  Although, I just realized that Neftali Feliz qualifies as a rookie.  He could end up with 40 saves, on a division winner.  Yeah, he will most likely win the award.  He has been fantastic this year.  Jackson started the year playing ridiculous.  He then slumped for awhile and has now started coming back around.

And now on to the National League.
I think this comes down to Joey Votto and Albert Pujols.  They are battling not just for one statistic as the overall leader, but instead they are having a race for the Triple Crown.  It is such an impressive thing.

Cy Young
There are some good pitchers in the NL.  I would say the debate will come down to Roy Halladay (my pick), Adam Wainwright, Tim Hudson, and Ubaldo Jimenez.  If you give the award out at the All-Star break, Jimenez would probably have been handed the trophy.  I still think Halladay is the best pitcher in the NL, but if Wainwright or Jimenez hit 20 wins, they might be seen as more deserving.

My pick of Alcides Escobar kind of sucks.  At least I took Jason Heyward as my secondary pick.  I think many people would have given him the award at the beginning of the year, but now I think you have to look elsewhere.  Personally, I feel that Buster Posey is the best of the bunch (or maybe Starlin Castro, who I feel started out so slow, but I realize now is hitting over .300).  However, I could see Jaime Garcia winning the award.  I do not know how I feel about that though.

8 thoughts on “How Are My Baseball Predictions Going?

  1. AL MVP: It’ll probably be Hamilton. Not Cano because he won’t have best stats on his own team (Teixeira will). If Tiger were better Cabrera would be a serious rival. Longoria’s stats don’t compare.

    AL Cy Young: I still think Felix has a chance. He’s the best pitcher in the AL (only thing Lee has on him is walks). If he can get to 14 wins, its possible. It’ll probably go to CC though.

    NL MVP: Pujols will finish stronger than Votto. He’s on a tear right now. It may come down to whose team wins the division. Unless Pujols’ numbers by the end of the season make that point moot.

    NL Cy Young: Probably Wainwright, if he can keep it up. Halladay’s the best in the NL, but Wainwrights outpitching him up to now.

    Posey has been the best rookie this season.

  2. Gideon…but the walks kill Felix. If you look at rate stats, they really drag him down (although, his strand rate is better, so I guess they are not killing him too much. he does have the benefit of a better defense…but whatever. in general, voters will look more at CC/Price because of the division they pitch in and the fact that both teams are tied, blah blah blah…)

    I really do not see how Wainwright is outpitching Halladay? They have very similar stats. Halladay has better strikeout to walk numbers, but Wainwright has the better opponent batting average. I realize you do not look at FIP, but they are both close on that as well. I just have to think Halladay is the better pitcher, more CGs, more shutouts, a perfect game. hell he pitched a CG against the pirates and lost 1-0. that is just some shitty luck, not like he got outpitched. although, the pirates did beat wainwright tonight as well, so now they are even in losses to the Buccos.

    And yeah, I would never bet against Pujols. I like Votto though, I just love how little respect he has gotten all year long.

    I wonder if voters will knock Posey down a peg for being called up later (although, Heyward was on the DL, so that hurt his ABs as well). That is why I could see them leaning towards Garcia, especially if he finishes strong. I want Posey to win though, I like watching him play.

  3. American League
    If the award was for best offensive player, I think it would go to Cabrera. But since the voters lean towards teams that make the playoffs, I think Hamilton is the #1 contender. There is too much offense on the Yankees too single out Cano, even though he had a monster first half.

    Cy Young
    You forgot Trevor Cahill, who probably will lose votes because he plays for the A’s, but I think he is neck and neck with Buchholz for best pitcher. I think Cy Young is less judged on what team the player is on (Greinke winning last year with much less wins), so I think one of those 2 could win.

    Feliz or Jackson. Depends on how each voter values a closer. I think they will vote for someone who plays everyday over a closer. Is Colby Lewis considered a rookie?

    National League
    Right now it is Votto, but you are right that Pujols could turn it on any any time and take the lead. Might depend on which team wins the Central.

    Cy Young
    Halladay, Jimenez, and Wainwright. Jimenez is fading, Halladay is gaining, and Wainwright has been consistently at the top. Right now I think Wainwright leads the pack, especially since some might say he got jipped last season.

    I think Posey has been the most impressive, but Jamie Garcia has been solid throughout. Castro is definitely a sleeper to watch out for, but right now I say Posey.

  4. I didn’t forget Cahill and Buchholz, both having great years. I just think enough voters value the K that if 2 guys have similar stats (taking into account the abysmal offense of Seattle) and guy A has 100 k’s more than guy B, guy A would get the vote. The only guy that’s had that few K’s and won in the past 15 years is Gagne, and he was a closer – and he still might have more than these guys end up with.

    And I’m obviously fantasy biased, as Offord no doubt is.

  5. Can I use FIP for a second? I know you guys do not like sabremetric stats, but whatever. The reason I did not consider Cahill (or Buckholz for that matter) is that their expected FIP (if I remember correctly, this is figured out once you take all the factors out that a pitcher cannot control, look it up on fangraphs, they explain it better) is a good deal higher than their regular FIP or even their ERA, which suggests that their defense behind them comes into play much more. They have low K totals, so if they played for another team, they might not record outs at certain times. Example: Offord hits a line drive, but Gideon leaps up from the SS position and catches it saving a possible double. But, if I am the SS, there is no way I make the catch, does this make sense?

    I realize I am simplifying this a bit, but again, whatever.

    When you look at the rate statistics, Lee/Felix have been the best in the AL all season long. It is funny Gideon that you mention if you take into account the abysmal offense of Seattle…you do realize that there are ways of looking that stuff up? Look at Baseball Reference or Fangraphs, use the advanced stats…

    I would have no problem with Wainwright winning the NL Cy Young. He has been fantastic this season. All of those guys have been.

    At least we all agree about Posey. I hope Ryan chimes in soon.

  6. If the writers base their vote on FIP I will dance in the streets naked on December 1.

    BTW, do you have any control over the process for posting a comment? I feel like I am entering security information for a DHS website or something everytime I’d like to share my comments… Sort of makes me not want to comment.

  7. I changed the settings again, I do not have to approve it. I hope the new spam settings catch all those stupid Asian porn sites though…

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