If you have been paying attention to college sports news, you probably noticed the number of kids entering the transfer portal. As a Penn State fan it feels like every day there is another football player entering (hell, the entire basketball team entered). Cory Giger wrote an interesting article about the future of the portal. I recommend checking it out.
He mentions that about 16% of football scholarship players have entered the transfer portal. Giger believes it will only get worse (basketball seems to be even worse than football). Maybe we get to a point where about 40% of kids look to leave. That seems pretty crazy, but it also seems like a distinct possiblity.
While I agree with Cory, I wonder if we do not see a different scenario play out. I believe the next two or three years will be the worst, maybe those numbers get close to that 40% figure, but then they begin to go down and probably level out somewhere around 25%. Why do I think that? Well, there will be a course correction by colleges and more specifically coaches.
There will be coaches who do a better job of retention. I am not going to say they will be the most successful coaches, but it will help keep those numbers down. I think the portal will also change the way coaches recruit. Maybe the ones who do a better job of retention are the ones who do not make promises.
I would love to see a few things after this season…
-How do the big programs stack up? Are they all similar or are some better/worse than others? Do smaller schools have tons of players in the portal?
-How do the players do that end up transferring? We will hear about the big names, but my guess is that in the long run, not too many of these players end up being an impacting gain or loss.
-Which coaches are the best at recruiting from the portal? It will be interesting to see how these coaches adapt to the changes.
-Does it bring more parity to college football OR do the elite teams widen the gap even more?
