This is the third year of Offord, Ryan, and I trying to predict the upcoming baseball season. The season is just around the corner and with it comes that sense of optimism. Unless you are a fan of one of the bad teams, then it is the start to another season of terrible baseball with the hope that someday, just maybe, you can lose in the Wild Card game. Okay, how about that for an opening!
American League East
Josh: The Red Sox won last year by two games, but the Yankees went out and added Giancarlo Stanton, whereas the Sox added J.D. Martinez. I think it will be a pretty good battle between both teams all season. The Blue Jays are probably the best of the bottom three, they need everyone to be healthy and they all need to have some above average years in order for the Blue Jays to stay competitive with the big two. The Orioles need to figure out what the hell they are doing with Machado. If there is no chance to resign him, then they need to trade him and I feel like they will get more if they do it before the season starts. The Rays keep trading things away and then DFA’d Corey Dickerson. I cannot imagine they hang on to Archer for much longer. I feel bad for fans in the state of Florida.
Offord: The Red Sox and Yankees are pretty close. I think the Sox pitching is a bit better so I’ll give them the edge, but obviously it could go either way. I like Toronto’s rotation and still think they have enough to make a Wild Card run. The bottom two teams are there. I’m hoping the Rays have some sort of plan involving prospects, but things are bleak in the state of Florida.
Ryan: HOW CAN YOU NOT PICK THE YANKEES?!?! Best line up in baseball? Check. Best bullpen in baseball? Check. With suitable starting pitching and role players as well. This line up is stacked and I am excited to see a healthy line up break some MLB records this year. I think the Red Sox are going to struggle defensively. They may have the best starting rotation in the AL, but I believe they are going to struggle at the corners of the infield, and they have kind of lost their identity with Pedroia missing a decent amount of time. They have a nice outfield, but on the days that they are going to have to keep JD Martinez happy and play him in the field, they will struggle. I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays over take them. When they Blue Jays line up is healthy, I believe it competes with the Red Sox, quite easily. Their outfield can compete with red sox, and they are better at the corners and up the middle right now (except for short stop). So I could easily flip Toronto with Boston without too much complaint. The only reason I have the Orioles ahead of the Rays is because 1. they have a much better line up and could surprise everyone this year with their offense. And, 2. the Rays are going with a 4 man rotation. Which, personally I love, but I find it unrealistic for a whole Major League season to stay competitive.
American League Central
Ryan: How can anyone not pick the Indians in this division? There are too many teams in the AL Central that are either too young, too old, or too suspended for them to remain competitive through the course of the season. The Indians are strong throughout their line up, and 2 big cogs that were missing in their line up last year for a good portion of it between Brantley and Kipnis are out to prove something this year. I look for Kipnis to be the best hitter in their line up as he is playing for future contracts and more than making up for the “loss” of Carlos Santana. Kluber is Cy Young award winning pitcher, and he won’t even be the best pitcher on his staff this year. Look for Trevor Bauer to take up that mantle and finally solidify himself as top tier pitcher in the big leagues. I have to admit the rest of this division was tough for me to grade out. I do believe that the White Sox are much further along then most people believe and I think that will reflect in their overall production through the course of the season. I like their pop, I like their team speed; their defense will be Ok and their young arms will learn quite a bit this season, while flashing some real results, to make up for that albatross Shields contract that no one wants. The Twins are banking on too much to go right for them this year, and its already proven difficult with the suspension to their starting SS, the news about their domestic abusive/sexual assaulting young power hitter, and their belief that Ervin Santana can be a staff ace, even after injury. I know they signed a couple of bigger names for their bullpen, but they be old. I am not sure that will be enough. Speaking of old, has anyone seen the Tigers two biggest power hitters? I think Cabrera is on his way down. I can honestly say as one with experience, you start to feel sorer longer at 34 than you did at 32 or 33. Victor Martinez? How is he still able to lift a bat? I know he’s having a solid spring, but I do not see that lasting an entire season. Their pitching will be better than expected, but otherwise the only thing keeping them out of the cellar is the unrealistic expectations placed on the Royals and their past successes. Gordon has much to prove if this team is going to be competitive. He’s taking over Center Field, which is much more ground to cover, to go along with his diminishing production at the plate; I call disaster. Moustakas is going to be disgruntled from this past offseason and will in no way hit for as much power as he did last season, and Duda is no Eric Hosmer. The Royals pitching is decent, but I think having Ian Kennedy as your number two pitcher is reason for concern. His strike out numbers are down, and his home runs surrendered have risen; Not really a recipe for success, no matter how many strong arms you have in your bullpen.
Offord: I think the Royals have done enough to be competent this year so I have moved them out of the bottom spot. The Tigers need to move everything they can to get their organization back on track. They are starting to look like the Angels minus Mike Trout. Which is a huge minus. The White Sox are on their way up so look for them to gain a spot in the standings each of the next 3-4 years. The Indians and Twins are the clear top two I think. Both are deep but the Indians have had some injury issues with their rotation. If that continues look for this to be a lot closer than most people think.
Josh: The Indians have Corey Kluber, that is basically all you really need. They are still loaded with talent up and down. Winning the division should be pretty easy, winning in the playoffs is a different story. The Twins continue to have a rotation that is less than great. They traded for Odorizzi, but not really sure that is enough to put them in elite team level. They should have tried to sign Darvish or Arrieta (maybe they did, what would I know). The White Sox have plenty of young talent and it would seem that some of that young talent needs to show some signs of being ready for the majors. The Royals and Tigers are in complete rebuild mode. The Tigers should probably just trade Cabrera, not sure he would fetch much at this point, but I am sure some contender could use him.
American League West
Offord: I think other than the AL East the division leaders are all pretty clear. I can’t wait for Ryan to explain why one or more are not, but for now I’m just agreeing with Josh on all of them. The Astros were the best in the world last year and they are really young, so no reason to think they won’t be the best this year. I think the Mariners and Angels are about even and will both be competing for a Wild Card. The Rangers are just too old and don’t have quality depth to sustain injuries to any of their stars. The A’s.. I don’t know. The AL Padres. Quick thought on Ohtani – my opinion is that it is a bad idea to have him be a pitcher and hitter. Watching him in the first game, he is wearing special gloves, announcers are on pins and needles that he might get hurt, and he is only going to be hitting 2 or 3 days a week because he won’t on the day before, day of, or day after he pitches. Seems like a bad experiment to continue once the season starts, but they probably told him he could to convince him to sign there. We’ll see what happens.
Ryan: OK, the astros are the best team in baseball until proven otherwise. They only got better in the offseason with their acquisition of Garrett Cole to add to an already dominating rotation, not to mention their already 3 cy young awards present beforehand. Their line up is going to be dominant, though I do expect a little drop in production for a couple players, but not enough to render the team flawed in any way. The other guys will pick up their production in response, such as Bregman and Derek Fisher. The Angels will push the Angels this year, so if any major injury happens to the Astros, the Angels could roll right by them. I believe they are the best defensive team in the West and their offseason acquisitions and resignings have obviously been noteworthy. I think Ohtani is going to struggle out of the gate, but he will adjust and bounce back. His ability to make in game and in season adjustments is why he was highly touted coming out of japan besides the fact that he throws 100MPH and hit for power. Trout will put together another MVP season, Upton will smack another 30 home runs, and Pujols will improve on most of his residual statistics that people find important these days and will have his legs under him to have a better season than recent memory. Their pitching can be good if they stay healthy and that is going to be their biggest concern throughout the year. If you look at the Mariners depth chart on their MLB.com website, it says that Ichiro is their starting left fielder. Is that right? Anyway. Many experts are saying how good the Mariners are going to be this year and I just do not quite see it yet. Their going to be great up the middle, but Cano is another year older, as well as Nelson Cruz; Dee Gordon is playing an unnatural position and how good can King Felix be this year. He’s losing some juice on his fastball and the rest of his rep is predicated off of the dominance of that pitch. I just see the Mariners struggling and the Rangers competing with them for 3rd in the division. The Rangers are even older than the Mariners and lack pitching depth behind Hamels. I was really surprised that they did not make more moves in the offseason. On a funny note, Iove that they signed Doug Fister and Matt Moore. The reason being- for the only money league I am in, my team name is Fister Moore, after these two gentleman. Making peoples names into euphemisms makes me giggle. Anyway, I see the Rangers struggling this year, especially if there is any significant injury to Hamels, and they will compete with the unknown Athletics for the bottom spot of the standings in the west.
Josh: The defending World Series champs could actually be better. A full year of Verlander, plus the addition of Gerrit Cole. I look for them to run away with the division again. The Angels will be better (I am just assuming that Ohtani is going to be a super dominant ace, who hits like 20 HRs). But seriously, they made some decent moves to try and stay competitive with the Astros…plus they have Mike Trout. The Mariners can hit some bombs, but their pitching is pretty suspect. They need James Paxton to stay healthy. The A’s…well every division needs a bottom dweller. It is crazy to think that the A’s and Pirates had the same record. Can anyone even name a player on the A’s that is not Khris Davis? Seriously, name one of their starting pitchers.
National League East
Josh: The Nationals are still the team to be in this division. I am still not sure they have shored up that bullpen (Kintzler/Madson/Doolittle is nice, but is it dominant enough?). The Mets should be much better than last year as long as Syndergaard stays healthy, they added Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier, which should give them some added pop in the lineup. The Phillies are an odd team. They should not have been as bad as they were last year. They focused this offseason on relievers and Carlos Santana (note–they had not signed Arrieta when this was written). After that we have the Braves, who were much better than they had any right to be last year, are still not quite ready to compete, but have the pieces in place to make a climb. The Marlins…yikes. At least they will have more Latin music at the ballpark.
Offord: I’m with you on this one. The Nationals only have a few more years to contend so I think they will find a way to strengthen the team before the trade deadline. The Mets signed some old guys and still have a massive injury history. I could see them getting a wild card, or dropping below the Phillies, depending on how things shake out. The Phillies are talking to Arrieta so if they can bring him on board they would have a decent rotation to go along with their young core of hitters. I would bump them up to second if they do (note–they did sign Arrieta, so technically the Phillies should be in 2nd up there). They could be a sleeper contender like the Yankees were last year, but since I predicted them to do so well last year I will curb my enthusiasm. The Braves are still too slapped together to know what to make of them, with a mix of aging stop gaps and young studs. I don’t think they are MLB ready enough yet, but we should see the Phils and Braves dominating this division within three years. The Marlins are a team. I am backing out of my Vegas relocation prediction now that the free agents are finally signing.
Ryan: I like the Mets mainly because I think a healthy Mets rotation is better than a healthy Nationals rotation, at this time. If I were the Nats, I’d be looking for a suitor to trade my ace pitchers, who will be showing signs of breaking down in the next year or 2; they aren’t going to be able to outbid the Yankees for Bryce Harper in the offseason, and I think they are going to struggle on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, the only reason I have them in 3rd and taking a wild card is because they are going to go all in for Harper’s last season in DC, so as not to call it a wasted time for what was the beginning of a hall of fame career. The phillies had some flash this spring with the signings of Santana and Arrieta, but here is my question. Who is hitting behind Santana? Who is holding on to Arrieta’s leads (if he has any) These are not the Cleveland Indians line up or the Chicago Cubs. Depending on how Arrieta adjusts to that small ballpark will determine the Phillies success this year, and I do not think that Santana is a good enough hitter to measure out too many more victories this season. I really like the young talent for the Braves; I am really looking forward to the debut of Acuna. Is he the next Mike Trout; and I can see a bounce back season happening for Teheran and Kazmir if he stays healthy. The Marlins will not be God Awful, but they will be worse than the Pirates…so you know, close to God Awful…like, Jesus was actually born in the spring you idiots, bad.
National League Central
Offord: The Cubs may not be better than last year, but they are so deep and talented that they can survive any injuries. Their 6th starter (Mike Montgomery) might be the ace on the Pirates, and their fourth OF (Happ) would probably hit in the middle of our lineup. The Cardinals are still deep and know how to win. They have a decent amount of young talent (Jose Martinez, DeJong, Wong, Pham, Weaver) to go along with their steady vets. The Brewers rotation is ugly. Unless they do something about it I don’t see them passing the Cardinals this year. Wade Miley is cursed. Look it up (don’t look it up). The Reds will beat the Pirates enough times this year to finish about them in the standings. I am done being a Pirates homer. Last place. Take it to the bank.
Josh: If the Cubs had not signed Darvish, I would probably flipped this division around a little bit. However, Darvish & Chatwood are more than enough to make up for the loss of Arrieta & Lackey. I think Cubs fans will be pleasantly surprised with Tyler Chatwood. The bullpen could be an issue, is Brandon Morrow a sufficient replacement for Wade Davis? When it comes down to the Brewers and Cardinals, those moves by the Brewers seem to outweigh the Cardinals acquisition of Ozuna. The Brewers also may not be done, they still have Domingo Santana, who they could try to trade for a starter OR find a way to shift Braun back to the infield. They also have the flexibility to use Keon Broxton as a super-utility guy, something he is probably more suited for than as an everyday starter. The Cardinals will be right there, I honestly see all three teams competing for the division (which will probably hurt them in the long run). I am curious to see how good the Cardinals rotation is this year. They have like four guys who could potentially win 14+ games (Martinez, Wacha, Weaver, Wainwright), but the guy I am most curious about is Miles Mikolas. He pitched very well in Japan for a few seasons (he was in the Pirates system for a good bit) and it seems like guys come back from overseas and have suddenly figured things out. The Pirates are a mess right now. They traded away McCutchen and Cole. Harrison and Freese want out because they think the front office is not committed to winning. It seems like they are trying a soft rebuild. They brought in some major league ready players, with the hopes that they can just be good enough to not be shitty. At least we have Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon! The Reds…I honestly have no clue if they have a strategy. Joey Votto seems to agree with me.
Ryan: I honestly believe that Yu Darvish is going to win the NL Cy Young this year. The Cubs line up is really good. It will regress and there are a ton of strike outs in this line up, but their is enough talent to overcome that lone negative. They hit the ball, catch the ball, throw the ball, and very well all around, its hard to see a better team in this division. I had a tough time between the Brewers and Cardinals. Usually I give it to the team with the better starting pitching, which in this case is the Cardinals. But I just see less question marks in the field, defensively, for the Brewers than I do with the Cardinals. I think the Brewers did a better job with their offseason and I believe they will reap the benefits. I do believe that we will be pleasantly surprised with the Pirates this year. The starting pitching will turn some heads, and I believe that Moran will push for a ROY consideration. I think they will hover right around .500 all season, which will be a marked improvement on last season. Still, that is not competitive enough for a wild card. Everyone is counting out the Reds, but they will be pretty good at the beginning of the season. Think of the 2012 Pirates. I believe their to be too many unknown quantities for them right now, and they do not really know what their identity is just yet, especially in pitching.
National League West
Ryan: This is going to be a very competitive division. Every team has a legit MVP candidate, and multiples in some other cases. I think what this is going to come down to is the pitching. I know they play in the Colorado, but if they were able to have the kind of decent success with a staff full of rookies, I imagine a full season of professional ball and experience could only lead to improvements. We know half of their line up is going to rake, and the other half, just needs to have a somewhat of a bounce back season. I think the San Fran experiment is going to work this year. but, only this year. A full healthy season from one of the biggest work horses in the game from Bumgartner, is going to mean a great deal of success for their bullpen. Samardija is going to be the key here, however. He pitches 200 innings a year, but how good are those innings? He looks good this spring, so I hope it pays off down the stretch. I do not like the Dodgers pitching this year, like at all. Kershaw has been nursing injuries at some point in the season in 3 of the last 4. As good as he has been, he is starting to break down, and I do not see anything impressive behind him. I think the league adjusts and you will see Bellinger hit a similar wall to Joc Pederson; and there is bound to be some kind of outfield drama with all of the moving parts they have out there, now that Matt Kemp is back and “In the best shape of his life”, to go along with the circus that is Puig. For the same reason as Kershaws physical struggles leads to less success for the Dodgers, the same will be said for Greinke and his serving up batting practice fastballs all season to the very dangerous NL West. Like the Dodgers, I do not believe the D’Backs have enough behind their ace to keep this team afloat. And, unlike the Dodgers, they do not have the 200 million dollars to throw at the offensive side of the ball. They do have Paul Goldschmidt, but that will not be enough. As for the Padres, an all-star caliber season from either or both Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer will not be enough for this team just yet.
UPDATE AFTER THE GIANTS PITCHING INJURIES (Ryan had the Giants winning the division)
Ryan: So in light of the news of Bumgartner and Samarjia going down for the first month or more of the season, I just want to re rank my NL west predictions. My reasoning is the same, and it looks like my predictions will play itself out accordingly. I said it would depend on those 2 to have healthy seasons for the Giants to contend. They are not healthy for a full month, therefore they will not contend early on and it will make their team suffer out of gate. However, I do believe their veteran line up with help keep them afloat and battle for a wild card position.
Josh: It is very hard to find a reason the Dodgers should not repeat as king of the division. I do think they will see some regression from Cody Bellinger, and they should not expect to see such an impressive result from Chris Taylor, but aside from that, their team is still pretty stacked. The Diamondbacks are going to miss J.D. Martinez, but the rotation is still good enough and they still have Paul Goldschmidt, so I think they will be just fine. The Giants are my surprise team. With Bumgarner healthy, the rotation can still be one of the better ones out there. The additions of Longoria and McCutchen will help the anemic offense. Oh, and a healthy Melancon, coupled with his life-mate Tony Watson, should be a fairly good bullpen. Remember, most people had them finishing in second place last year, so if things go well for them, I can easily see them jumping ahead of the D-Backs. The Rockies brought in Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw to help the bullpen after Holland left for free agency, but I am not sure it was enough. I think some of those rookie pitchers that had success last season could see a bit of a sophomore slump. However, they still have plenty of power, especially at Coors Field, so they can always stay in games. The Padres have Eric Hosmer…and Wil Myers. They also brought back Chase Headley. They have some young pieces to be somewhat excited about (Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe), but they still are a long ways off from being competitive in this division.
Offord: I don’t think it is really a surprise to pick the Giants since it is an even numbered year. The organization is too strong to let another season like last year’s happen again. The Rockies and Diamondbacks are both teams you can never really trust, so I’ll take the steady organization over the wild cards. Dodgers are great, and they will spend money if they need more. They will probably pay more in luxury tax than the Pirates pay their entire roster. The Padres are terrible. You asked us to name an A’s pitcher in another email (I can’t.), but can you name a Padres pitcher either? Other than Clayton Richard of course, since he is like their ace or something. Eric Hosmer is not going to change this team. They need to figure out what to do about pitching because since Peavy won the Cy Young they have had nothing to speak up. Maybe one or two decent seasons from Cashner and Ross, but that’s it. And offense.. none other than Wil Myers for half a season. The Padres have been so bad for so long that I don’t understand how they don’t have a ton of talent ready to turn it around. I think this all stems from those terrible moves they made years ago. Didn’t they give a lot up for James Shields and a couple other guys, maybe Matt Kemp, and they did nothing? I would be fed up with them if I lived in San Diego. But I would still sleep easy because I lived in San Diego.
Playoffs & Awards
Josh: This is finally the year the Nationals live up to expectations. I look for Harper to have a monster year before free agency. The awards are pretty much your standard names (I flipped on Kluber and Sale). I hate taking Ohtani for AL ROY, but if he puts up even decent pitching numbers, then he probably wins it, unless someone has a huge breakout. I would not count Walker Buehler out for the NL ROY, or any rookie from the Dodgers for that matter.
Offord: I agree that this is probably the Nationals’ last shot, so I will be rooting hard for them. Maybe there will be too much pressure for them to pull through, especially with some very tough teams in the NL, but I think they will do it. Beating Houston is going to be a tall task though. Look for Harper to hit a grand slam off Cole in Game 7 to win it for them.
Ryan: (note–Ryan forgot to write something about the playoffs, probably because he was at the gym doing some odd kettle bell workout while screaming YU DARVISH)
Instead of doing insane division predictions or even a top three predictions, I asked for a prediction on the overall theme/story of the 2018 season.
Ryan: This overall theme to the season has already begun. “Who is left standing?” What I mean by that, is which team is going to keep some healthy stars? I believe teams and players are starting to over emphasize their work out regimen in the weight room and neglecting the functional movement aspect of fitness. This leads to bulkier, stiffer players who aren’t training towards their sports functionality. Which is twisting, rotational movements and shoulder health. Players are still working on overall strength and losing the mobility goal. Which is why you are seeing so many players with torn up shoulders, elbows, oblique and lat strains and pulled hamstrings. Team health is going to be the theme of the season and I have a feeling we are going to see a few more stars on the shelf this season before all is said and done. (note–I actually saw some GM say how he thinks the next big leap in the sport (like advanced analytics recently) will be the physical training and development. Teams that keep players healthier will be more successful. It sounds so obvious, but as you know, working out is not just lifting as much weight as possible.)
Offord: I predict games will still be long and the change in mound visits will have no effect. Instituting a pitch clock, like a shot clock, is the only real way to solve the issue. You would only need to have it in place for a season or two to get everyone’s mind set changed. Pitchers and batters both need to get ready faster. There was a lengthy article written about this that Josh probably sent me and I think it is right. (note–I did send him an article, but I cannot find it anywhere! But as everyone knows, my proposal to speed up the game is even simpler than all of this: eliminate warm up pitches during a pitching change, if the pitcher warmed up in the bullpen, he should not need to come in and throw a few more balls…you do not see a goalie come in and get a few practice shots to loosen him up.)
Josh: Baseballs continue to fly out of the park this season. The 2017 home run record is broken, but we continue to see the trend of more strikeouts (last year’s mark of 40,104 strikeouts will also be eclipsed) causing runs per game to again decrease, perhaps as low as the dominant pitching era of the late 1960s. The rumors of “juiced” baseballs will lead to calls for some kind of Congressional investigation (much like the steroid investigation years ago).
Thank you to Offord & Ryan for the help with this post! I look forward to another fun and exciting season.
