BOOM! 11 right last week. Suck it everyone. Must have been a tough week because Mom was next with only nine. She is still in first at 60, then Jon (56). I am in third with 52 points. From there we go Offord, Sean, and Scott, all at 48. Then James at 39 and finally my brother is in last with 24.
Underdog Special: Green Bay Packers (+10.5)
I should have just taken the money line last week on Giants game. I am tempted to take them again this week, but I am going to take the Packers. It is tempting to dismiss Green Bay here and figure they will get blown out by the Bills, but I have this feeling that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will play a good game and keep it close.
Underdog Record: 5-2 (+$36.70)
Steelers Prediction: I was almost right about the Steelers pulling off a win against the Dolphins.But almost does not mean much. This week I am with Vegas. I think the Eagles win easily. I could see it being 31-9. I am taking the under on Kenny Pickett interceptions (2.5). I think he throws one.
Steelers Prediction Record: 2-5
If I was a really smart data analyst, I would look to see if there is a correlation between teams starting out with multiple three & outs and record/margin of loss. I have read a few things that say 3&Out is a bad stat because it does not really tell you much. Which yeah, I agree. The total number of 3&Os is meaningless. But I would want to break 3&Os down by quarter and would love to know if it were the first, second, third, etc possession of the game.
I think this is probably more important in college football. If an offense starts the game out slow, it causes the defense to spend more time on the field, and they quickly wear down, which allows the other team to move the ball more easily. Now, a 3&O followed up by the other team having a 3&O would probably cancel each other out. This is why this analysis needs to be done by someone much smarter than me, haha.
Last week Penn State forced a 3&O against Minnesota on the first drive, then two out of the next three drives were 3&O. You could see the Gopher defense tiring out and the PSU offense moving the ball more and more each drive. By the end, it felt like Clifford & Co. could score at will. The week before? Penn State’s first two drives were 3&Os, particularly after long, time-consuming drives by Michigan. Guess what? The defense was tired and the Michigan offense started piling on the points.
If I were a head coach, I would stress the importance of moving the ball early in the game. Keep our defense fresh. Or am I totally crazy here? What do you think?
