Each year I do my predictions for the upcoming baseball season. Back in the day, some of my friends would participate, but over the years I have stopped asking them because it always felt like I was being a burden. This year though, Ryan reached out to me and asked if I wanted his predictions. I said yes, and assumed he would just send me his picks in a list. But, he went above and beyond and decided to write a decent amount about each division. So I decided to just do my predictions, and allow Ryan to do the heavy lifting.

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

After the season Baltimore had last year with their surplus of young talent, they infused their
rotation with a former Cy Young winner and…more infusion of young talent into their line-up
with the number one prospect in baseball joining at some point this season, makes them
the favorite to repeat as division champs. The Yankees made a big move with the trade
acquisition of Juan Soto, but the injury to start the season to Gerrit Cole and the lack of
consistent proven depth in their pitching rotation make them an uneasy 2nd place finisher,
though I think we will see some bounce back this season from Cortez, Rodon and most
importantly, a slimmed down Giancarlo Stanton who is looking to play an entire healthy season
for the first time in years. It’s the bounce back from those players that I think nudges them past
the other teams. I always like Toronto and Tampa. Toronto has the very young and promising/proven talent of offspring from former all-stars/Hall of Famers, throughout their line-up and a decent pitching staff to back them up. The same can be said for Tampa, as they are always among the youngest teams in baseball, yet still find a way to win every year. I just think that losing what could have been the best player to ever walk through their door; a personality they were willing to give a key to the city, just took the whole “shaking hands and kissing babies” to a new level. I think Tampa has the best bullpen of the 3 in the middle, and I think that will shorten games for them, so the middle three is honestly a toss-up, but I do believe this
division will have three teams make the playoffs. Boston on the other hand, does not seem to be
heading in any kind of direction. They are making signings of what they have identified as top
future players for their organization, but it seems very small market of them, just with bigger
numbers in their contracts.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

This division was honestly tough for me to shake out. It really came down to which organization
I believe has the best 1-2 punch in their rotation. That would be Minnesota with Pablo Lopez
and Joe Ryan. I do believe they are expecting way too much from Paddack, who hasn’t really
shown anything throughout his career outside his rookie season in San Diego. It’s not a knock
on Paddack, he just cannot stay healthy, and I expect much of the same this year. Detroit has
better potential with their pitching, but Kansas City has one of the more exciting players in their
line-up in Witt Jr., and I like what the rest of the line-up could do with a full healthy season.
Cleveland, I believe are headed for an underperforming year. With their ace Bieber’s advanced
metrics declining from year to year, I wonder if his Cy Young year in the shortened Covid Season
was just a flash in the pan. It is not going to matter, because some club is going to trade for him at some point this season, and then Cleveland will be left with their soft tossing 2nd year guys to keep hitting their spots, while continuing to be backed up with the lowest power output in baseball. I would have Chicago higher, but their Cuban bombs away potential plan has turned into a Cuban missile crisis; though they still have Luis Robert Jr., who can do it all, just not all on his own.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

I am a huge fan of the Mariners starting rotation. It is the best starting rotation in the Major Leagues, in my opinion. But that line-up? Outside of Julio Rodriguez, I am not sure anyone there scares me. Texas on the other hand, has a vicious and potent line up. With the young power products they have coming up for a full-season to augment the offensive onslaught they already have going; plus the mid-season additions of the assumed healthy deGrom and Scherzer…there is no reason Texas should not run away with this division. The Astros are always going to be competitive for most of the season, but sadly, I think they are going to go the way of my Pittsburgh Penguins–grasping to hold onto to those glory days when their superstars were young and talented and winning championships, then signing them too long, so their legacy can stay untarnished by another jersey, leaving them in a much-needed tear down and rebuild. At this point I just feel bad for Mike Trout. I believe he will be healthy, and have a nice bounce back. This should remind everyone who is the best player in the game, but it is not going to be enough. It wasn’t enough when he had the best two-way player baseball has seen in a century, so what makes you think they’re going to be better off now that they have lost him? Oakland is a dumpster fire, and they honestly don’t have anyone on their roster that I am excited to see besides Jack Wilson’s son…which I will refer to him as such, until he proves to be a solid big leaguer in his own right.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

This is another division where I think three teams are going to come out of for the playoffs. The Braves are world beaters. Let’s not try to fool ourselves into thinking they are anything, but the best team in the National League. They have the one of the best pitchers in baseball in Strider (who by the way has added to his arsenal this year). They added a highly motivated and healthy (finally) Chris Sale to their rotation; and every player in their line-up can hit over twenty home runs. Filthy. The Phillies and Mets, I believe can be interchangeable. I picked the Mets, not just because I feel bad for them, but because I believe they can be the better team. Both teams have high-priced All-Stars, still playing like All-Stars, but are starting to show signs of aging. The Mets have younger prospects to infuse into the line-up and hope they will be rewarded. I think they will get some great top prospect numbers from the likes of Baty and Alvarez. It also doesn’t hurt that they will have a healthy season from one of the best closers in the game and should get Senga back in a month for a nice shot in the arm. Miami has the best pitching depth in the division, but I believe that most of it is still too young and maybe a year or two away from being a feared rotation, while their line-up has some promise, just not enough pop. The Nationals have been making some nice moves and drafting pretty well. I expect them to really start making big player transactions after they have Corbin’s money off of the books at the end of the year, and you should see a nice jump in competition from them in 2025.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

The Pirates are not only going to be good at the start of the season, but they are going to be even better by the All-Star Break. I cannot wait for the second half of the Pirates baseball season because we are going to see the bolstering of a rotation that Pittsburgh hasn’t had in quite some time. Adding Paul Skenes later this year is going to be a huge boon for what already will be a great line-up and above average rotation. It won’t even have anything to do with what the Pirates added to their rotation in the offseason with their signing of left-handed pitcher Martin Perez, and the acquisition of another left-handed pitcher, Marco Gonzales. It will be the progression of what we already have in house with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, and a hopefully healthy return of JT Brubaker midseason. I have a feeling that one of the new lefty arrivals will fizzle out and be a huge disappointment this season, which will have them pulling the strings on bringing
up another top Pirates prospect in Anthony Solometo. And, oh yeah, by the way we just shortened the game by making one of the best bullpens in baseball even deeper by signing future Hall of Famer, Aroldis Chapman, who still throws over 100 MPH. No big deal. I had the Cubs at the top originally, but after going into a deeper dive, they kind of remind me of the Guardians of the National League. They actually lack a good deal of pop and their pitching is full of soft tossers with the like of Kyle Kendricks and Justin Steele leading the charge. They do not know what they have in Imanaga and we are still unsure if their top prospect Crow-Armstrong can hit once he gets up to the big show for good by mid-season. I like the Reds, they are flashy and they are exciting. But they also have too many holes in their line-up and pitching. The Reds will run up the score a few times, but they are also going to lead the NL Central in strike outs (at
the plate, not pitching). They are hella athletic, but they are also suspect on defense. They have pitching that can bring the heat, but that also leads to more fly balls. More flyballs in the smallest ballpark in the majors. Of all of the seasons to lose Joey Votto, this was the worst one. The biggest mistake they made was letting him walk when they could have easily found him 400+ at bats at the top of the line up, while letting him (a finally healthy Votto), get on base at his usual close to .400 clip and play above average (formerly Gold Glove) defense, while bringing along the future of Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Speaking of Christiana, Christian Yelich is still really good. Like, really really good. He will have an All-Star season and their top prospect, Jackson Chourio will also be really good. But I do not believe the addition of Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez will help propel this team to anything big this season. They have traded away too much of their pitching over the last 1.5 years and their best reliever is going to miss the first three months or so of the season. I have them ahead of the Cardinals because I like how right I was about St. Louis last year, when they crashed and burned because their stars are too old and their prospects can’t hit. The pitching they signed in the off-season, though sexy-ish, was a desperate attempt to show that “Hey, we are the Cardinals! We do it right and are in competition every year” and will also be a huge disappointment thanks in large part to their top signing, AL Cy Young runner-up, Sonny Gray already missing time with injury to start the season, and the return of an aged Lance Lynn to the rotation. I smell a fire sale by the trade deadline in St. Louis.
Pirates Record (Ryan): 88-74
Pirates Record (Josh): 79-83

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

When you have the highest payroll and the most expensive athlete on the planet in your line-up, not to mention three other MVPs on the your team, you should at least win your division, which I believe the Dodgers should do rather easily. The one thing that can drop them is their defense is going to be VERY shaky up the middle and their pitching at the beginning of the season has to find itself: too much youth and unknowns with Miller, Sheehan, Yomamoto and Gavin Stone. They have Kershaw joining them later and they are hoping to depend on a healthy James Paxton, but those are way too many question marks for what is supposed to be a championship caliber team. The Giants have the best rotation in this division and I don’t think it is close. The signing of Cy Young Award winning Blake Snell put them over the top in my eyes. They already were going to have a fantastic 1-2 punch with Cy Young finalist Logan Webb and
young Kyle Harrison to go with what I believe will be a positive experiment with making flame-thrower Jordan Hicks into a starter. The Giants also have one of the best defensive players behind the plate and added a multi-Gold Glove winner in Matt Chapman at third and signed one of the best Korean prospects to come to the State to man centerfield and hit leadoff. I like the Giants, and no one should be surprised if they win the West. I kept going back and forth between the Padres and D’Backs. The Padres have bigger stars in their line-up and a great top prospect rookie of the year candidate in Merrill. Whereas the D’backs have a reigning rookie of the year, and some decent pop throughout their entire line up. Arizona also has what seems to be a perennial Cy Young candidate in Zac Gallen leading an above-average rotation, but San Diego just reached out and traded for Dylan Cease to add to Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and the treasure trove of pitching San Diego got in return for trading Juan Soto to the Yankees. So I pick San Diego over Arizona. Colorado…I’ve got nothing for Colorado.

PLAYOFFS

Ryan and I both picked the Orioles to win the World Series. That is crazy, and probably means they will end up in last place.

AWARDS

I love how optimistic Ryan is about the Pirates. He actually sold me on them. Granted, I do not think they are the 2013 Pirates yet, but I think this team could be the 2012 Pirates. Instead of a major collapse, I just think this team hangs around all year, but does not have enough to get over the hump. I think next year though…that could be the beginning of the new window.

JOSH’S FINAL PREDICTION

Every year I try to do some big final prediction about the season. This year though, I want to go a different direction. You know how people think the NFL is rigged? I am not one of those people. I do not believe that nonsense at all, but sometimes I have this sneaking suspicion that Major League Baseball is rigged…wait, what?

Okay, not like scripted or anything stupid like that. But I think the owners put their thumb on the scale in certain ways. Back in the late 90s, when baseball fans were slow to come back after the strike, the owners knew players were using PEDs, but they ignored it. The home run race helped the game. Later, when they wanted to make the game more exciting, the messed with the ball (you can read tons of articles about the coefficiency of bounce or something that affected the distance balls traveled in recent years). The more people that watch the sport, the more the owners make from the enourmous television deals.

So where is my prediction? The Dodgers will not win the World Series. In fact, they will not make the World Series, and they may not even win their division. I think a team spending the money they have spent this off-season to buy a championship will further hurt the game (or at least, I think there are a contingent of owners who probably believe that). Fans hate seeing teams buy a ring. They love when a small market team does well.

Now, this does not mean the owners have come up with some agreement to not have the Dodgers win. I could see a few of them pressuring a few umpires to maybe squeeze the strikezone on a few pitchers, expand it for a few hitters. A faction of owners that do not want a salary cap, but also do not want to see rating and attendance decline. If the Giants or Diamondbacks are close to beating the Dodgers for the division, do not be shocked if there is a trade to a contender that defies logic. A team that is in the hunt sends a good player to them for very little, and everyone goes “wow, that was a terrible trade.”

Yeah, it is a crazy conspiracy theory. I know. But it is very hard to trust the MLB owners. And hey, if the Dodgers win the World Series, then I am just a nutjob (or did the owners allow the Dodgers to win so that fans get upset, and they can finally institute a salary cap???), but if the Dodgers do not win…well obviously I was right!