We are past the halfway point of the season (the actual 81 game point, not the All-Star break) and it looks like we know which teams are for real (Braves) and which are not (Angels). And it looks like we could have a nice wild card battle…well in the NL, not so much the AL.
Top Five
1. Red Sox (58-29)–Boston leapfrogs the Yankees in my rankings and in the division.
2. Yankees (55-28)–A game back of the Red Sox. They have so much young talent that it is actually disgusting. I am curious to see who they part with in trades.
3. Astros (56-31)–The defending champs seem to be going through a minor down spell. I would not be concerned, they are still ridiculously good.
4. Mariners (55-31)–They just keep winning. Good for them. Do they have the depth and prospects to make moves during the trade season?
5. Brewers (50-35)–The Brewers got their closer back, but also have some very strong late inning relievers (Jeffress & Hader).
Bottom Five
5. Reds (37-49)–They looked pretty bad, but then swept the Cubs and took a series from the Braves. It will not be long before they pass the Pirates
4. Marlins (35-42)–I do not understand how they are not worse than this.
3. White Sox (30-55)–I think it will be a weird trade time for them.
2. Royals (25-60)–They are so bad. They have been outscored 461-295 this season. They are the only team in baseball to not score 300 runs at this point.
1. Orioles (24-60)–Speaking of terrible. The Orioles just need to trade everyone.
Shifting
Did you see the story about how Scott Boras thinks that the defensive shifts teams employee is discriminatory against left-handed hitters? I get why he hates the shifts, it makes his clients numbers look bad and they end up getting paid less, which means he gets paid less. If these hitters want to keep their average up, then they need to beat the shift. Slap the ball into left field (I think Justin Smoak bunted a ball up the third base side and had an easy single). If a hitter does that for a few games, ends up 4/4, eventually teams will stop shifting as much. They may think they are neutralizing that power, but if the next hitter knocks him in, then guess what? The shift did not work. The onus is on these hitters. They are giving you a huge hole to work with and they cannot adjust their approach to take advantage? I do not feel bad.
Offord brought up a good point though. If the shortstop is on the opposite side of second base, he no longer is a shortstop, right? There is a whole thing about Anthony Rizzo during the Cubs wheel play and how he becomes a second baseman (it really only matters to fantasy baseball people because of positional eligibility). If the shortstop and second baseman are both on the same side of the bag, that is against the rules…right?
Well…no. Take a look at the official MLB rules:
As long as the fielder is in fair territory, it is legal. Maybe the official scoring makes a difference, but it does not matter where they are standing. I remember in little league, if a really small kid was up, the CF would come stand almost directly behind second base. Obviously it is a huge risk, you have a ton of open space in the outfield, all that little kid has to do is hit it over the infielders heads and he has a hit.
I bet Boras has no problem cashing in on a pitcher who played for a team that employed heavy shifts and a groundball pitcher has a great year. I doubt he goes into negotiations saying “well my client did pitch last season for a high shifting team, so you should expect to see some regression from my client next year, but we still want $20 million per year.” Yeah, I doubt Boras brings that up at all.
So basically, shifting is not illegal and it is not hurting the game. What is hurting the game is players not making contact. Yes, home runs are up, as are strikeouts, but as I have mentioned before runs are down. If teams want those home runs to score more actual runs, have their players who are shift prone to hit it the other way and get on base.
State of the Pirates
As of now, the Pirates are 40-45, they are 10.5 games out of first place and 7.5 out of the wild card. They are by no means out of it. But they also do not feel like a good enough team to go on an 8 or 9 game winning streak. Or even an 8-2 record over ten games. The rotation is pretty much full of 4s and 5s. Jameson Taillon is the ace of the staff (5-6 with a 4.05 ERA), Trevor Williams (6-6, 4.22 ERA) is cool, but definitely not a top of the line starter. Chad Kuhl (5-5, 4.55 ERA) and Joe Musgrove (3-3, 3.79 ERA) are on the DL. Nick Kingham (2-4, 4.70 ERA) looked promising during those first few starts, but not so much anymore. Ivan Nova (4-6, 4.48 ERA) just gave up seven home runs last night. Do any of those guys seem like they are going to lead a team on a sustained winning streak?
I am not saying that the Pirates should give up on those guys. I think they could develop into solid starters, but they do need a top of the line starter. Unfortunately, it seems like the only way to get one of those is to either draft one of them (they had one and they messed him up) or try to sign one (which they will not even attempt). Maybe Mitch Keller is that type of pitcher. If he comes up next year and is pretty good and maybe the Pirates go out and sign someone who is pretty solid (heaven forbid they spend money for an actual top tier pitcher) then perhaps they could shift Williams (or Kuhl) to the ‘pen with Glasnow and Brault. I think that could be a seriously good bullpen. Taillon, Keller, Nova, Kingham, Williams/Kuhl could be an alright rotation. Maybe they could sign someone like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Chris Sale (hahahahahahaha). If that were the case, I say try to trade Nova, but if not that, then maybe have Williams & Kuhl in the bullpen.
That brings us to the offense. If the Pirates decide to start making trades, what assets do they have? Well first to go would probably be Jordy Mercer. I would imagine whichever team does not get Manny Machado will want to upgrade their shortstop and Mercer (is obviously no Machado), but he is probably better than what a few teams trot out there. Next to go is Francisco Cervelli. Any team looking for a catcher upgrade would be crazy to pass him up. I think that one will crush fans. After that, Josh Harrison will go, although to be honest, I cannot imagine what teams are clamoring for him. Maybe one of the other teams going after Machado (especially if they are looking at him as a third baseman). Perhaps the Braves. And then we have the outfield. The Pirates have Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Austin Meadows, and Corey Dickerson. Obviously Meadows is not going anywhere. I also think you keep Marte. It comes down to Polanco and Dickerson; whichever player some team wants, I say go for it if the deal is good.
If the Pirates are not out of it, what do they need to compete? Well…a starting pitcher. If Dylan Bundy is healthy, then that is the pitcher they should target. The Orioles need to completely dismantle their team. The Pirates have enough minor league talent to get a deal like that done. He does not become a free agent until 2022, so the price would be steep, but I think Bundy would be worth it. Shit, maybe they should try making this deal even if they start trading pieces away. They could probably trade Mercer and Cervelli and replace them with Kevin Newman and Elias Diaz, and just be fine.
Sophomore Slump Update
Bell, Bellinger, and Hoskins have had a nice improvement. Bell is still awful at defense, which drives down his WAR. Also, he has zero power. It is all singles. Swanson has been pretty bad recently, but even he still has a higher slugging percentage than Josh Bell. There are only 34 qualified hitters with a lower slugging percentage than Josh Bell. There are only two first basemen with lower slugging (Logan Morrison & Chris Davis). My point here is that a first basemen does not want to be at the bottom of the slugging list. He needs to figure that shit out.
