This is our fourth year of doing picks. Offord, Ryan, and I are not professional prognosticators (although, I think we end up doing fairly well considering). I bet our picks stack up with the experts that get paid for this sort of thing. Technically the season has already started, but I doubt those two games in Japan made too much of a difference on our picks. I should also note that Craig Kimbrel & Dallas Keuchel remain unsigned. I do not think either of them would change our picks that much, but if a team signs them and they end up winning the World Series with one of those guys, we can claim that we would have taken that team, had we known. Just covering our butts here.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Ryan: The Yankees are going to get this division back this year. They beefed up their bullpen, and their stars seem to be healthy this year. The Red Sox haven’t really done anything to make their club better. I know they won the World Series last year, but re-signing Steve Pearce, does not a better ball club make; they will be in the playoffs, but I think the world series hangover will be in full effect. Tampa Bay will be better, but do not be surprised if Charlie Morton is in another uniform by seasons end, Especially if he pitches well and the Rays fall out of contention early. Toronto will make a surge later in the season when they start allowing all of their young talent play in June, and then they will peter out. Can Baltimore possibly hang their hat somewhere in 2020? 2021? 2022?
Offord: I think Tampa will be the A’s this year, although it won’t be as big of a surprise. They are ahead of the curve with their strategy and with some big additions they will push for a playoff spot. New York and Boston are still light years ahead in depth and talent but, in a one game playoff, I think the Rays stun the Red Sox. Boston and New York will both win over 100 games considering how bad the bottom of the division is.
Josh: This will be between the Yankees & Red Sox. I can see both of them winning 100+ again. The Rays should be good, the rotation looks pretty good adding Morton in there. I really hope Glasnow can be the the pitcher the Pirates dreamed and Austin Meadows turns into a superstar. The Blue Jays are like the Padres, they are not ready to compete yet, but they have some pieces coming (Vlad Jr!). The Orioles…hahaha. Maybe they can be worse than last year, that would be cool.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Offord: The Indians are still clearly the top team with their pitching staff, but the Twins and White Sox are young and will soon catch up. I take the White Sox over the Twins because if Chicago is even close to the top in the second half they will make a big move or two. The Twins generally don’t make trades so that is my reasoning there. The AL Pirates.. have too many Pirates. They will battle with KC over last.
Josh: Normally this would be a pretty easy one to predict: the Indians breeze through the division. However, I think this year the Twins really push them. The White Sox are improving, although they did miss out on the big free agents. The Royals and Twins are still bad.
Ryan: If the White Sox get any kind of pitching, I think they have a shot at this division. Their young talent around the diamond could shore itself up this year, and if they all click, this could be a scary line up. The only problem is that the White Sox are putting way too much confidence into their young top prospect rotation, and that could end up putting a huge cloud over the southside of Chicago. The Indians will probably run away with this division because they already have legit pitching, and some interesting prospects playing this season. Can their big prospect acquisition, Jake Bauers replace Michael Brantley and will Carlos Santana be the same Indian he was before he left in the first place. The Twins could have an outside shot at this division. They have an Ace pitcher and a possible high end number 2 if the Pineda experiment pays off, and if their former top offensive prospects, Buxton and Sano turn it around, this will also be a viable line up. I don’t see the Pirates double team combo doing much for boosting the overall record of Detroit this year, even with an aging Miggy in the middle of the line up, and the Royals lost the heart and soul of their ball club before the season even begins.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Josh: Yep, the Astros should win this one easily. The Angels have a strong lineup, but pitching is still an issue. The Mariners are completely off to me. They basically traded their entire team around, but they should still be decent. I do not think the A’s will come even close to being as good as last year. The Rangers still have Joey Gallo and those 40+ home runs and .200 batting average. Unfortunately without Adrian Beltre they are just not interesting.
Ryan: Houston will still reign supreme. And the new contract they gave to Bregman will keep him happy and content in the middle of the line up with the rest of the all star studded cast. Their 1A and 1B starters will have one more season of dominance before the party gets busted up next season, and their bullpen hasn’t change much. The Angels are going to be interesting. If Batman bring any form of his former self and shelf’s the Robin persona he’s been using these last few season’s, this could be a good season for the angels. We know they have the offense as long as everyone is healthy, and they have the best up the middle defense in the league in my opinion. So, it will definitely come down to what their pitching does. The A’s always surprise me. I just do not see the same success this year for them as last year, and it will come back around to the argument of why small market teams cannot afford to contend, blah blah blah. I actually have no idea what Texas has been up to. They have Gallo to hit some bombs and strike out a lot and they have a pitching staff that is a scraped together dumpster fire of has beens and if they can stay healthy’s. The Mariners are in a technical rebuild in my opinion, so I really do not know what their talent will give us this year. I just like the fact that Ichiro stands a chance to play a little bit this season.
Offord: I think the Astros are going to be worse than people think this year, and if there was any team in this division that could actually challenge them I may have pushed them down to second. However, the A’s repeating what they did last year seems damn near impossible. Seattle is shedding players left and right but I still think they are better than the Angels and Rangers. 2-5 could really go any way I think so I’m not going to worry about it too much.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Ryan: I like the Mets. I think they have the best pitching, the best bullpen, and I am highly interested in the line up. I think they can scrape one more good year out of Cano and get production from a few of their young guys, that will let them keep pace with the Braves. The only thing keeping the Braves out of the top spot for me is that they cannot seem to keep their pitchers healthy heading into the season. If they come back with a clean bill of health, I believe the Braves will be competitive for the top spot again this year. The same will go for the Nationals. But they are a more of an aging ballclub. Scherzer has been dominant for so long, how much longer does his body hold up? Strasburg gets hurt at some point every season and Corbin is going to have a ton of pressure to live up to that contract. I just do not see it in the cards for the Nationals this year. I know the Phillies are going to be a popular pick because of the hoopla surrounding their off-season, but I think they are missing something. I cannot put my finger on it, but there is just something missing. Maybe it’s a bullpen, maybe its any elite fielder of any kind, I do not know…I just know there is something missing. They are going to be fun to watch and I hope to God that Cutch bounces back and Harper launches home runs every night, but they will not win enough. The Marlins could have some hope for the future, but not the immediate future.
Offord: I still like the Braves because they won the division last year with youth and they will only get better. Acuna could challenge for MVP and the pitching is decent. Washington will stay in it because of their pitching, and the Phillies are a complete wild card (ha, wild card, and they will get a wild card spot.. I guess that’s a pun). If the Phillies stars mesh well and the pitching stays healthy they could get the last spot into the playoffs.
Josh: I think the Nationals are still too good of a team to dismiss. Adding Corbin gives them one of the strongest rotations in the NL. The Phillies will be right there with them, I think they start the season off slow, but really turn things on around June. The Braves will take a step backwards, their rotation is just not good enough. The Mets are decent and could push the Braves. The Marlins are awful.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Offord: Every team finishes above .500 in the best division in baseball. If the Pirates were in the West or AL Central I think they could make a run, but sadly they are not. We’ve seen it before…their futility against the Reds ultimately causes them to fall behind. I think Yu Darvish bounces back this year if he remains healthy, and with the depth they have on offense the Cubs easily win the division. The Cardinals should be improved, but with the depth in the division it will be tough for any one team to stand out and win a WC spot (other than the aforementioned Cubs).
Josh: The Cardinals added Paul Goldschmidt, which gives them some much needed power. I think Ozuna has a bounce back year and the pitching staff will be stronger than people expect. The Cubs were quiet this offseason, but I think a healthy Kris Bryant and Yu Darvish is probably as good as a big free agency move. The Brewers have over-performed the last two years, but I think this is the year that ends. They are good, but not division champ level. The Pirates and Reds will not be awful (I think the Central may be the toughest division, top-to-bottom). The Pirates will hover around .500 all year. They are probably the definition of meh.
Ryan: I like the Cardinals. I love their moves. Nothing overly flashy in the off-season besides the trade for Goldschmidt. They found the pieces for their bullpen and basically kept things in house. I think they have the best offensive depth in the division, and they have 7 starting pitchers that they can use when either Martinez or Wainwright inevitably go down. The Cubs just need a healthy season from their pitchers for them to compete. They sunk way too much money into their rotation for them to get as little as they did out of it last year. A healthy bounce back from Kris Bryant will go a long way, and a repeat by Baez will suffice to keep this team in it offensively. I actually like the Pirates right in the middle of this division. I think we have the best starting pitching staff in the division, but our offense and defense will definitely lose us some close ball games. Kang is going to be interesting and I want to see if Trevor Williams can have a repeat performance of last season. I don’t think the Brewers have enough pitching. They are going to struggle with keeping runs off of the board, no matter how much offense their MVP and Moose re-signing can give them. The Reds need to prove to me that they can win at all. I do not care about the personalities they added. Puig and Kemp can both be volatile, and Kemp is past his prime, even if he does end up hitting 30 home runs in that matchbox of a field. Their pitching will be better than the Brewers, but again they play 81 games on a Little League diamond, so the pitching is not going to help enough.
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Josh: The Dodgers are still the team to beat in this division. They get Seager back early on and they have one of my favorite young pitchers, Walker Buehler. The Rockies have a powerful lineup, but everything for them depends on the rotation. The Diamondbacks gave up Goldschmidt, but I think they still manage to stay fairly competitive. The Padres added Machado, but they are still a year or two away from being ready to compete in this division. I have no clue about the Giants. Will they be good?
Ryan: I think I picked the Rockies last year, and I am going to pick them again this year. I like what they have in almost every facet of the game. You want pitching? They’ve got 3 third year pitchers who can strike you out and a top flight closer to finish off their hard work. Hitting? They have Trevor Story and great young talent around the diamond. Defense? They’ve got a Gold Glover and perennial MVP candidate manning the hot corner. I just like everything they bring and they’re going to be hard to beat, especially in Coors Field. The Dodgers consistently prove me wrong when I say that they will fall apart. They have Seager coming back from injury and Kershaw is always up in the air. But the Dodgers are always the Dodgers and have a ton of money to play with, so you cannot sleep on them. The D-backs will surprise some people. I think they got a decent return for Godschmidt and they still have Greinke. Their offense is still a question mark, but we will see what they can produce. The Giants are getting old, and they know it too. They are in a pseudo-rebuilding mode and need to make some big decisions in the very near future. You are going to see some old superstars flying off of their shelf in July. I like what the Padres are doing, but I think they need to let their young talent fly. Once all of their prospects are up it will be a different story in June and July. They could be another team to make a late surge once their young talent gets acclimated.
Offord: I don’t like Arizona…they are shedding players and I think they will continue to do so. Like the White Sox, if the Padres are around .500 in the second half they may look to build on their new addition. The Giants seem to be in the same spot they were last year so I don’t know how they could compete with the Dodgers and Rockies.
PLAYOFFS
It is funny, all three of us have a repeat of last years ALDS matchup of the Astros & Indians. That means it will probably be the Rays and Twins. Most of our picks are pretty similar, I mean we all think the Yankees will be in the World Series. I think Offord mentioned in one of our emails how the American League seems much weaker this year than the National League. I think you can see that by how similar our AL side is and how different we are in the NL.
AWARDS
Rookie of the Year
Offord and I agree about Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Nick Senzel. I think they are the most ready prospects out there. Ryan went a little different, taking Fernando Tatis Jr. (remember when his dad hit two grand slams in one inning?) and Bo Bichette. Crazy how three of the players we picked are kids of prominent Major League players. I think one player that we probably overlooked was Yusei Kikuchi, the latest Japanese import who will pitch this season for the Mariners. Personally, I do not think he should be eligible for ROY honors since he played professionally in Japan.
Cy Young
I think Offord has the safest picks here with Scherzer and Kluber. If Kershaw stays healthy, I think he puts up a dominant year. I hope Gerrit Cole continues to dominate and get better, I would love it if he won the award. Ryan went way out on a limb with Jameson Taillon. Chris Sale is a fairly safe pick, but come on Ryan, Taillon? I feel like he is a 14-10 pitcher at best.
Most Valuable Player
I played it very safe taking Mike Trout, same with Offord with Betts. I think we both see Bryant having a pretty big year and if he leads the Cubs to a division title, I think that earns him the award. Ryan took Arenado. I took him a few years ago and Offord ripped me for it. Bregman is a good pick, since he finished fifth last year, I think he continues to improve.
PIRATES RECORD
Ryan: 88-74
Offord: 82-80
Josh: 80-82
Ryan is very optimistic about the Pirates this year. Offord and I…not so much. Obviously I hope Ryan is right.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Ryan: (Ryan was too busy being a celebrity to come up with something…)
Offord: Each team will play at least 162 games, the playoffs will take place, and one team will win it all. Mike Trout will not have a 40/40 season. Bryce Harper will get booed by the home crowd at some point. Miguel Cabrera will get hurt. I know these may be controversial predictions but that’s just who I am.
Josh: I think this is the season that breaks the system. Not any one system, but pretty much all of them. First, a bunch of rookies should probably start straight out of spring training (Vlad Jr). I think the fans are tired of seeing players held back because of service time. Scott Boras and the Players Union will make this a major issue (they already have, but it comes more to the forefront of the conversation). The second system is going to be the underspending from teams like the Pirates. A pitcher like Dallas Keuchel remains unsigned, the Pirates have the money (as do a bunch of other teams). I think the union really attacks the owners over this issue. Especially at some point in the season when a team with a low payroll has an okay record, but could be more competitive with just one more piece. Third, I think teams continue to use creative analytics to find ways to win games. We see more openers, we find teams changing lineups, and the shifts continue to get stranger and stranger. As this continues, traditionalists push for rules to stop it from happening. The league will have to rethink the direction they want the game to go in the future. And finally, the umpires will keep making bad calls. They will keep covering up their bad calls by ejecting players and managers. I think this comes to a head this season and the idea of robots calling balls/strikes truly gains traction.
The 2019 season will be looked at as the season where change began.
Thank you to Offord & Ryan for participating. Baseball is back folks, life is good!
