Right now the Pirates are 44-45 and only 2.5 games out of first or the wild card. Obviously this means there is plenty of speculation about possible trades. I have heard of three possible trade scenarios and let me just say that I do not think any of them happen. But, they are fun to think about and debate.
Madison Bumgarner for Will Craig & Travis Swaggerty
Okay, this one is not so much a rumor as more of a journalistic suggestion. I realize this one is not very popular among fans since it seems a bit like the Archer deal. However, I might be okay with it.
I am not sold on Swaggerty being our centerfielder of the future. He is not having that great of a year down at High A ball. Granted, he is young and he could just be adjusting, but it is not like he crushed it at West Virginia either. If he ends up being good for the Giants, well that is fine.
Will Craig has broken out over the past two seasons as a power hitter. He is a first baseman and if you have not noticed, the Pirates are pretty well set there. I am not certain if that power will translate to the major league level. He strikes out a ton and does not walk much, so there is a good amount of risk for that type of player.
For those reasons, I think they are expendable. If they turn out to be good players for the Giants, so be it. We would be getting a few months of Madison Bumgarner. If the Pirates are in contention for the division or wild card, then MadBum would be a starting pitcher worth having. It is funny, people are trying to say that he is having a down year and that he is pretty much washed up.
First of all, if he were on the Pirates, he would be one of their best starting pitchers. His ERA is a little high right now, but that might be a little bad luck/bad team. His FIP is good and he is pretty much on par with Joe Musgrove.
And look, maybe if he pitches well with the Pirates and they make the playoffs, maybe (and this is a big maybe) they can sign him to a deal. I have this feeling that Bumgarner will not get the deal he probably imagined a few years ago.
This deal will not happen. But it would be cool…especially if they signed him for a few years.
Noah Syndergaard
Thor is on the block for the Mets. He is not having the best year, but I think much of that is due to the Mets shittiness. He has a few years of control left (I think he is arbitration eligible this season and then a free agent in 2022). I think the Pirates could make a run for him. So what would it take?
Well…the Mets would probably want someone like Mitch Keller and perhaps Travis Swaggerty. I would say Ke’Bryan Hayes, Calvin Mitchell, and Oneil Cruz should be off limits. Anyone else should be available.
Felipe Vazquez to the Dodgers
The story is that the Pirates would want at least two of their top four prospects. They are pretty solid prospects, all four are in the top one hundred. He is signed through 2021, with team options for 2022 & 2023. I would hope a deal for him would be pretty freakin’ huge.
The bullpen has been a weak spot this season, aside from Vazquez. If they would trade him, then the season is basically over. Even if they are out of contention, I cannot see trading him when they honestly have no one to step into his role. This is not like the other times (Hanrahan, Grilli, Melancon, Watson…), there is not someone setting Vazquez up that we all go “oh yeah, that guy could be the closer!”
And this brings me to my biggest fear…
Josh Bell!
I do not think the Pirates would trade Bell (I do not discount anything at this point though). However, if they are reluctant to move Will Craig, then it seems to me that they figure they have almost zero chance of signing Bell to an extension of any kind. He is arbitration eligible in 2020 and a free agent in 2023. If he has another season like this one next year, then I would imagine his arbitration contract would be pretty high. Kris Bryant got $12 million last year, Mookie Betts got $20 million…if Bell has back-to-back .300 AVG, 30-40 HRs, 120+ RBI seasons? He would be in that range $12-$18 million, right?
The Pirates are not known for their high spending. A $12 million contract would make him the highest paid player on the team, above Polanco and Marte. Nutting is not going to sign Josh Bell to a long-term deal with $200+ million. It will never happen.
Which means that the NH will have to make a decision as to when is the best time to move Josh Bell. He cannot do it in 2022 because then he is just a rental. If he does it after this year, teams may not be willing to give up as much he would want because they may be weary of this production being a fluke. But, if he repeats next year, then we are in that sweet spot. Teams would trust that these numbers are for real and they would be getting multiple years of control. Plus, they would be in a strong position to negotiate with Bell about an extension.
This is the depressing thing about Josh Bell’s season. He has been so good this season that it virtually guarantees his exit from Pittsburgh in a few years. He is not going to sign an extension similar to the ones signed by McCutchen, Marte, and Polanco (or by Ronald Acuna) and if he continues to be this good, the Pirates will not want to fork out that kind of arbitration money.
We always talk about capitalizing on the Pirates window, but the truth is that there is no window. Or if there is one, it is barely open and it is starting to close very quickly.
