Predicting an entire season is difficult. If you have followed along for the past sixteen years, you know that I usually do rather well, or spectacularly bad. There is no in between. I expect the same for this year’s predictions.
Playoffs
AL Byes: Yankees, Astros
NL Byes: Padres, Braves
AL Wild Card Series: Guardians defeat Angels, Blue Jays defeat Mariners
NL Wild Card Series: Phillies defeat Cardinals, Mets defeat Dodgers
AL Division Series: Blue Jays defeat Yankees, Guardians defeat Astros
NL Division Series: Mets defeat Braves, Padres defeat Phillies
AL Championship Series: Blue Jays defeat Guardians
NL Championship Series: Padres defeat Mets
World Series: Padres defeat Blue Jays
Awards
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña (Fernando Tatis Jr., Trea Turner, Juan Soto)
AL MVP: Mike Trout (Aaron Judge, Wander Franco, Vlad Guerrero Jr.)
NL CY YOUNG: Corbin Burnes (Max Scherzer, Sandy Alcantara, Spencer Strider)
AL CY YOUNG: Jacob deGrom (Gerrit Cole, Framber Valdez, Shohei Ohtani)
NL ROY: Jordan Walker (Kodai Senga, Andrew Painter, Ezequiel Tovar)
AL ROY: Gunnar Henderson (Masataka Yoshida, Anthony Volpe, Royce Lewis)
Pirates Record: 67-95
Thoughts on the season…
I have this weird feeling that this season will be a bit different from the previous few seasons. I believe there will be fewer teams with 100+ wins, possibly even zero. And I think there will only be one team with 100 losses. Just a hunch I have. Maybe just my cynical nature. The league wants us to think there is more parity, and that tanking is done with because of the lottery aspect of the draft. Not saying things are rigged, but teams that might be inclined to slash everything, may not do so, maybe there is some pressure from the league to keep the losses below 100. Who knows. Like I said, it is just a hunch, I could be wrong.
The big difference this year will be the rules changes.
The biggest rule change in my opinion is the bigger bases. We are going to see more stolen bases. Last year there were 811 runners caught stealing. How many of those were close plays? Now imagine giving the runner an extra advantage of 4.5″. How many of those would have been safe? I think steals will become a much bigger part of the game. Granted, we are still never going to see a Rickey Henderson, but it is not crazy to think we could get guys stealing 75+ stolen bases this year.
Also, the larger bag/shorter distance, will affect those close plays at first base. So we could see more runners on base, which could then mean more action. It would be great to see teams trying to win games by hitting a bunch of singles, and not just trying to launch angle a ball over the fence, or strike out.
This brings up the next rule change: the shift. There was a time when I would have been vehemently against the shift, but no longer. It is definitely making games more boring. It sucks that hitters refuse to hit it the other way when they are being shifted (not that it is that easy when pitchers are throwing 97 mph inside), but it also sucks when a guy hits one into what should be a gap between the 1B and 2B, and there is another guy there to make the play.
I have heard a few teams have played with shifting the LF over to short right (the shift only applies to the infield). I hope teams try this. I feel like for a hitter, the option of trying to hit something to opposite field, especially a little bloop single that way, which would end up in an easy double, or maybe a triple, would be more enticing than the prospect of bunting down the left side. We may see some hitters end that kind of shifting very quickly.
Now we come to the pitch clock. I like it! Look, do kinks need to be ironed out? Absolutely, and that is what spring training is for. I do not want to see a pitcher walk around the mound eight times, shake off the catcher four times, then throw over to first six times because the runner, who has one career SB, is slightly off the bag. I also do not want to watch a hitter adjust all of his armor after every pitch, fix the batting gloves, twirl the bat 13 times, then call time because the pitcher shook his head. Some of these players brought the pitch clock on themselves.
I think the pick off rule is interesting. The pitcher can only attempt a pick off twice during a plate appearance. They can try again a third time, but if they do not get the out, then the runner advances. This has caused some fans to think this will basically be an automatic steal for the runner, but I do not believe so. Pitchers will adjust, they will find ways to record outs. It will take some time, but that is one of the beautiful things about baseball: it is always evolving.
I look forward to seeing how this season plays out (granted, I know how it ends for the Pirates…they lose a ton of games, an easy prediction), and how the new rules either improve or ruin the game.
