The Coach Debate

This weekend saw the final games for a few head coaches in college football. Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher, Mississippi State terminated Zach Arnett, and Boise State moved on from Andy Avalos. Penn State fired their offensive coordinator, but fans are screaming at the top of their lungs that it is time to get rid of James Franklin after another loss to a top ten team. I believe a few other coaches out there will be fired before bowl season (I think Billy Napier and Sam Pittman may get the ax this year–and quite possibly Chip Kelly). 

Awhile ago I started looking at coaching records. I was tired of hearing about Franklin’s record against top ten teams. I wondered if his record was honestly all that different from any other coaches? I looked around and could not find a good site that had coaching stats the way I wanted them. So, I spent way too much time making my own. I decided that I wanted to see the record against top ten, but also 11-25. But you know what? That does not tell a good story either, what about a record against higher ranked teams, and lower ranked teams? I started doing this, and believe me, it takes some time. I would have to go back through each season and count them up. College Football Reference was my best friend for a few weeks. I did this for a ton of coaches, and even a bunch of historical coaches. I then decided to keep up with it during the season. Why? No idea, I am weird. 

Also, if CFR ever reads this post, and wants to take this information, and use it on their site, I would gladly hand it over.

So I guess you are all dying to know my findings. Well here we go!

This is a nice collection of coaches. I could mention others, but instead I will now give some winning percentages and any coaches who stand out compared to James Franklin.

Record vs. Top 10
James Franklin–15.00%
Ryan Day–70.59%
Jim Harbaugh–25.00%
Mike Gundy–36.67%
Nick Saban–72.00%

James Franklin does not look good in this category. However, when the only top ten team you play consistently every year is Ohio State, a team that is always a top four team. I guess my question is, how often should a team beat one of those teams? You might look at Ryan Day or NIck Saban and say “but they beat top ten teams at a high rate!” Yeah, but they are almost always ranked higher than the top ten team they are playing.

Record vs. 11-25
James Franklin–56.25%
Nick Saban–83.33%
Jim Harbaugh–58.33%
Pat Narduzzi–36.84%
Mark Stoops (Kentucky)–60.00% (12-8)

Alright, so this is a little better. Winning those games against ranked opponents more often than losing them is good. Franklin and Harbaugh are about even. I wish if I had time to redo this, I would have broken it down further to 11-15/16-20/21-25. I wonder how many wins some of these teams rack up against a #23 team, you know what I mean?

Record vs. Higher Ranked Opponents
James Franklin–20.83%
Jim Harbaugh–29.41%
Nick Saban–77.78%
Dabo Swinny–54.55%
Kirk Ferentz–34.29%

This is the more telling stat to me. When you play against a higher ranked team, how good are you? Looking at the average, it sits around 30%. Franklin falls well below that line. You look at the guys we consider elite coaches: Nick Saban or Dabo Swinny…well above 50%. Kirby Smart is at 64%. Those are elite teams, not too many teams are ranked above them, but when they do play someone like that, a win is not far-fetched.

Record vs. Lower Ranked Opponents
James Franklin–87.50%
Jim Harbaugh–86.67%
Dabo Swinny–86.03%
Kirby Smart–90.70%
Nick Saban–88.89%

This is the reason I started looking into this stuff. I kept hearing people say something like “James Franklin always loses a game he should not have lost” or “Franklin gets out-coached by a worse team!” This is where I give Franklin credit. He beats the teams he is supposed to beat. Ranked below or unranked? He handles them at a similar to rate as some of the best. Pat Narduzzi? Only 61.11%. Kirk Ferentz is only 79.55%. How was Joe Paterno? 86.53%. Bear Bryant? 86.67%. It makes sense, right? You should beat worse teams at a fairly high clip. And if you are always ranked, you will play a ton of teams ranked worse than you. Helps get a nice sample size.

What does all this mean? Well, in my opinion, James Franklin is doing an okay job. Not great. He is below average when it comes to playing teams that are ranked above him. He is bad against top ten teams. He is okay when teams are ranked in the 11-25 area, and he dominates against lower/unranked teams. Is his job safe? For now. If they play a top ten team in a bowl game, and pick up another win, that helps him out a little bit. Once the playoffs expand, we need to see if Penn State makes it, and can he win in a first round matchup against another top tier team.

BUT!!!!

The leash has to be short. We cannot go three or four more years like this. We need to see some kind of success against Ohio State (and Michigan if they continue to be this dominant). If PSU makes the playoffs, they cannot be a one-and-done team every year. They have to make a run. I am not saying National Championship or BUST, but we must be in the competition. If James Franklin cannot do that, then it is time to move on.

Recently, Lavar Arrington said that Coach Franklin is doing a good job, and should not be judged by his losses against Michigan and Ohio State (I am paraphrasing). Lavar said that JoePa could not beat them either. Joe Paterno was only 12-22 against Michigan and Ohio State during his time in the Big Ten. That is obviously better than 4-16, which is Franklin’s record against the two top schools, but beating those two teams is difficult, it will not happen all that often. It is just a hard pill to swallow that Penn State is not one of the elite teams of the conference. We are like Ole Miss (Lane Kiffen has not won against Alabama). It sucks when you realize that, but it puts things into perspective. James Franklin can get us 10-2, maybe 11-1 some years. With expanded playoffs, we may be a perennial playoff team, and we may even get lucky one year and make a little run. We will never be Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, or Clemson (although it looks like their reign has come to an end). Should we be happy with this? Part of me says yes. Another part of me says hell no. We should demand more, but is that realistic? I do not know.