Grading a MLB GM’s Trading Skills Part 1

When I started my project of looking at the players drafted by the Pirates under NH and how he compared with other teams, I said that if I were NH’s boss, then I would probably judge his success on a few different areas. Today we shall look at a different aspect: trades. My first instinct was to say “yeah, he sucks at trades.” But maybe that is not the case. I decided to look up every trade NH has made since he took over at the end of 2007. Unfortunately, it would be too much to look at every other team, so I am only looking at the Pirates here. Here is every trade they have made in that time.

The first thing you might notice is that there are a ton of trades. Most of them are minor league trades or just players being traded for cash considerations. Those deals are generally pretty mild and do not mean much. For example, if your AAA club needs a pitcher, you may reach out to someone and trade one of your minor league role players for a pitcher. I know this is hard to believe, but there are tons of players in the minor leagues who will never make it to the majors and they make a decent living just playing baseball.

I used WAR to compare the trades. How much WAR was the player the Pirates traded for worth as a Pirate and then how much the player traded away was worth for that team. I realize that WAR is not always the best method (I will get into different reasons why later), but again, it is easy for quick comparison. As you can see, the Pirates are behind about 10 wins from opposing teams. However, I am not so quick to call this as bad for NH. So much of the opposing WAR comes from one trade.

I am not going to break down every trade that involved actual MLB players (the X means the player never made it to the big leagues). I am going to look at a bunch of the big ones and give my subjective opinion. There are two verdicts; the contextual verdict-which is to say, how did we view the trade at the time (I try to find articles about the trades and see what the general consensus was among fans) and the hindsight verdict-which is exactly what it sounds like, how good is this trade in hindsight.

The X-Man Goes Bye-Bye
This was the first big trade for NH. He sent Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yankees for Daniel McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens. As you can see, the Pirates made out on this one from a WAR standpoint. Although, not in the way we probably hoped. Remember, when this trade happened, Tabata was a player that many considered to be a “Manny Ramirez-esque talent.” Well he never lived up to that hype. However, as much as we fans used to joke about Karstens, he had some solid years for the Pirates. Especially when you consider that the X-Man was generally pretty injury prone (he had Tommy John surgery twice, plus other elbow and should injuries).
Contextual Verdict: B+
Hindsight Verdict: B+

Bay Meets the Green Monster
It is pretty easy to forget that during Bay’s time with the Pirates, he was one of the best power hitting outfielders in the National League. After winning the Rookie of the Year, he put up some very good seasons and was definitely the best trade chip the Pirates possessed in 2008. It is crazy how years of control did not seem to matter back then, as Bay had one year left of arbitration before he would hit the market. I wonder if that would change his trade value today? Anyways, this was a three team deal, the Pirates received: Brandon Moss & Craig Hansen from the Red Sox and Andy LaRoche & Bryan Morris from the Dodgers. The Red Sox got Jason Bay, and the Dodgers received Manny Ramirez.

Moss & Hansen never really amounted to much for the Pirates. I think Moss is probably another case of the Pirates just not being to tap into a player’s potential. However, that would go in that development review, which is not part of this piece today. Bryan Morris was an okay reliever, he managed to be a 7th inning guy if I remember correctly. The Pirates ended up trading him to the Marlins for a competitive balance pick (they selected Connor Joe, who we then used to get Sean Rodriguez back).

The big piece of the trade was Andy LaRoche. It is easy to laugh at that since LaRoche never panned out. However, back then he was still a highly touted prospect (Baseball America had him at #31). Something tells me the Dodgers were not willing to part with their top prospect that year (Clayton Kershaw). Also, the Red Sox made out in the deal. Bay was great for them and they did not have to give up Jacoby Ellsbury (their top prospect) to get him. Looking back on this trade, I understand why the Pirates wanted quantity (their minor leagues were bereft of talent), but reading through some of the other trade packages that were attempted for Bay (the Indians offered Cliff Lee), it is crazy to think of what could have been.
Contextual Verdict: C
Hindsight Verdict: D

WE GOT ROBINZON DIAZ!!!
This is the absolute worst trade and one that NH will always be criticized. He traded Jose Bautista for Robinzon Diaz. As I said earlier, this is the trade that truly skews the WAR in favor of opposing teams. However, I cannot fault NH for this trade. At least not in a big way. The Pirates loved Bautista, and so did other teams. The Pirates drafted him (under Cam Bonifay), then the Orioles took him in the Rule 5 Draft, after that he went to the Rays, then to the Royals, who traded him to the Mets, who then traded him and Ty Wigginton to the Pirates for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Teams saw something in him and yet none of those teams could coax it out. For some reason, the Blue Jays were able to do it. So if I were grading them, I would definitely give them bonus points for development.

Bautista was just average for the Pirates (although in 2007, he did hit 36 doubles, which was in the top 15 of the NL, so maybe the power was coming along slowly). I do not even think Diaz was that good at AAA. I cannot remember the whole reason behind the move (I guess it came down to not needing Bautista because we had LaRoche on his way up and possibly Neil Walker). I guess my big knock on it would be that the Pirates already had Doumit & Paulino as catchers, what need was there for another? If they had traded for a relief pitcher, who played a season with them and was used mainly as a sixth inning mop up guy, I would say “eh, I will grade this a C.” But because NH got basically nothing for what at the time was a nice, average, role player (those are useful and needed).
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: F

Is Neal Huntington a Genius Trade?
Nate McLouth came out of nowhere and during the 2007 & 2008 seasons looked like the centerfielder Pirates fans had been hoping for since Andy Van Slyke.
He seemed ready to be a breakout superstar. This is what Ryan said about McLouth going into the 2009 season: “I think with mcclouth, he will put up barry bonds type numbers when he was with the pirates. Just without all the stolen bases, so no MVP’s. Then we’ll trade him towards the end of his contract and get very little in return because that’s just how we do.” Do not worry, Offord and I made fun of him pretty much from the moment he made that claim

Jeff Locke…All-Star Pitcher

I like to pick on Ryan, but if you read the comments, I thought McLouth would be 25-30 HR guy for a few years. In fact, I remember when the news hit that McLouth had been traded to the Braves, my initial reaction was annoyance. I read all the positive spin sites and they were saying that McLouth’s value was at it’s highest and there was no better time to trade, plus Andrew McCutchen was coming soon and McLouth was expendable. It seemed crazy to me, but then I read about the three guys we received: Jeff Locke, Charlie Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez. They all seemed to be highly touted prospects within the Braves organization (Gorkys was actually #62 overall that year). It is crazy to look back and see that Morton and Locke’s time with the Pirates amounted to zero WAR. That is definitely another failing of WAR.

Neal Huntington could not foresee how bad Nate McLouth would become, but the fact that he traded him at his maximum peak value, showed his skills. Jeff Locke would go on to be an All-Star for the Pirates and Charlie Morton…well he always had electric stuff. And whatever, once they got him converted to a groundball guy, I feel like he did his job of eating innings.
Contextual Verdict: A

Hindsight Verdict: A

The Breaker of Lanny Frattare’s Spirit
I will never forget the game when Lanny Frattare’s will to call games was broken. Sean Burnett came on to pitch and Lanny was praising Burnett because of how he had battled through so much adversity to come back to the majors and yadda yadda yadda. Then Burnett gives up back-to-back HRs to allow the Cubs to take the lead. After the first one is hit, Lanny is like “no no no no, oh no.” And you could just tell that he was defeated. He was not the same the rest of the season (I think the game was in August, so the Pirates were way out of it anyways). I am not saying that Sean Burnett is the reason Lanny retired at the end of the season, but I bet that was a factor.

I am also not saying that Lanny is the reason the Pirates traded Sean Burnett & Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals for Joel Hanrahan & Lastings Milledge. This trade actually works out to be almost even from a WAR perspective. Burnett pitched longer, so he accrued more WAR than Hanrahan, and Morgan/Milledge were basically just there. Nyjer Morgan…that guy was such a clown. I feel like this was a trade of players the fans from both teams were just fed up with…the Nationals fans hated Hanrahan because he blew a bunch of games for them or something. Milledge never lived up to the hype and it was definitely a change of scenery move for both teams. I am going to grade it fairly high though because Joel Hanrahan was so awesome to watch and eventually we flipped him for Mark Melancon. I will mention this multiple times too, WAR is not great to relievers. How good was Hanrahan to the Pirates from 2010-2012? 82 Saves,18 Holds, 228 Ks, and a 10.4 K/9.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: A

Pirates Fans Hate Trade Fantasy Fulfilled
The Pirates traded for Adam LaRoche in 2007, before NH took over. There was genuine excitement because they went out and traded for the mythical Lefty McThump that Pittsburgh needed in the lineup. One of the negatives that was mentioned about LaRoche was that he was a slow starter. That was not an exaggeration. His first month with the Pirates, he hit .133. I do not think the fans ever cared much for him after that. He would strike out and fans would boo (especially early the next season). People would call in to the sports radio shows and question why this guy was out there. Want to know the crazy thing? He ended both seasons with the Pirates with a .270+ average. After the All-Star Break, he was generally on fire. But the fans hated him. I think they also blamed him for his brother not living up to his hype.

As free agency loomed, it was just a matter of time before Adam was traded. The Pirates sent him to the Red Sox for Argenis Diaz & Hunter Strickland. Neither one amounted to much for the Pirates. Although, Strickland has went on to become a pretty good setup guy for the Giants. The funny thing is that Adam LaRoche loved it in Pittsburgh and wanted to stay. He may have been willing to sign a decent deal with them (he was paid $7 million by the Pirates in his final season, whereas the Diamondbacks signed him to a 1-year deal for $4 million). This one is a tough one to grade. I wonder if the Pirates should have been trying to find a way to lock him up through his arbitration years and maybe extend him a few past. I also have no clue if he would have qualified as a Type A Free Agent that year or not, if so then the Pirates could have received another first round pick in the 2010 draft.
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: C-

Wait, A How Many Player Trade?
Seven total players! That was the trade between the Mariners and Pirates. Ian Snell & Jack Wilson for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Nathan Adcock, Brett Lorin, and Aaron Pribanic. The hope and dream was that Clement would live up to his minor league numbers and become the Lefty McThump that LaRoche never became. I think at the time they assumed that Cedeno would be an adequate replacement for Jack Wilson. He definitely was not. However, Ian Snell was not that good of a pitcher and he ended up out of the majors a year after the trade. Wilson was good for the Mariners when he was healthy. I cannot imagine too many teams were beating down the Pirates door for either player, so to get that many players in return, even if they never really panned out…I would call that trade a win.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: D

The Old Dirty Sanchez
Freddy Sanchez for Tim Alderson. Freddy was a good hitter. Sometimes it is easy to think that he was hurt all the time, but he still played in 140+ games each season with the Pirates. When he was traded, he was hitting .296. Granted, this was the season that fans knew NH was just going to blow the team up. I have no clue if there were other offers, but I think Alderson can be one of those cases of “sometimes prospect lists are useless.” He showed up on the Top 100 in 2008 & 2009 (84th and 42nd). The  Giants felt he was expendable because they had Madison Bumgarner about to make his debut. I guess you can chalk this one up to poor scouting or something. Alderson just never amounted to anything under the Pirates (I saw him pitch at Altoona and he was just slow, mid to high 80s). I am not sure what NH could have received for Freddy, but a highly touted prospect seems about right.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: F

Kevin Hart for John GraBLOW? Yes, Please!
By the end of the season in 2009, the entire team was different. I wrote about it after the Wilson/Sanchez trades. NH then traded John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny for Kevin Hart, Jose Ascaino, and Josh Harrison. I remember the trade happening and Harrison was mentioned as a throw in piece. Funny how that works sometimes. This traded ended up being great for the Pirates, since it was J-Hay who went on to become the best player of the entire bunch. Here is an oddity, Grabow was a Type A Free Agent, so if the Pirates did not trade him and he signed elsewhere, they would have received a compensatory pick. How weird is that? Even though Hart and Ascaino never panned out, Harrison still makes this trade a success.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: A

I remember reading something about Akinori having a weird custom glove, made out of shark skin or something?

Domo Arigato!
Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez. I was not going to even mention this trade, but it is kind of interesting. I remember at the time, Pirates fans were not thrilled or upset with the move (there were people who thought that having a Japanese star would help boost ratings among Japanese-Americans and overseas). It seemed like a decent trade for both teams: the Pirates got an infielder, who could play 2B with Andy LaRoche at 3B, until Pedro was called up. Unfortunately, Aki was not very good. What about Jesse Chavez? Well here is why I included this trade. The Rays immediately traded him to the Braves for Rafael Soriano, who had 45 saves for the Rays that year. Jesse Chavez? Well he was not very good for the Braves. At the end of the day, the Rays made out great, the Braves and Pirates looked like idiots.
Contextual Verdict: C+
Hindsight Verdict: D

These Guys Played for the Pirates?
Do you remember NH trading Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, and D.J. Carrasco to the Diamondbacks? Do you even remember Ryan Church? Those are some blasts from an awful past. Anyways, that trade happened and the Pirates received Pedro Ciriaco and Chris Snyder. I remember it being considered a good move, especially since Doumit was hurt at the time. If you were wondering, the Pirates were 36-67 when they made that trade. Ciriaco was considered amazing defensively, but not very good as a hitter. Snyder and Ciriaco were not awful during their time in Pittsburgh.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: B

We Actually Got Something for a Reliever Who Was 91 Years Old
I remember back when Octavio Dotel was the setup guy for Billy Wagner. They were this amazing tandem that both threw 100 MPH and basically ended the game after the 7th. Then in 2010, he is 36 years old and pitching for the Pirates, who as I mentioned above were terrible that season. He was okay for the Pirates, he had 21 Saves and still had a nice amount of strikeouts. The days of being untouchable were behind him though and as fans we all knew the Pirates would trade him to a contender, but then came the actual trade: Dotel for Andrew Lambo & Jame McDonald. Two guys who had been in the Top 100 prospect lists (Lambo #49, McDonald #56) and at the time were still fairly high on the Dodgers prospect list. The fact that NH was able to pull this trade off was incredible. Now, Lambo never panned out (just could not figure out major league pitching) and McDonald had like a really great season and a half before falling apart, but all of that does not take away just how good of a trade this was for Neal.
Contextual Verdict: A
Hindsight Verdict: B+

NH Tries to Replicate the Dotel Deal
The final trade the Pirates pulled off in 2010 was Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez. Lopez was having a solid season as a reliever for the Pirates. Nothing too amazing. The Pirates seem to love hitters who can crush it in AAA, but suck in the majors. Bowker is another one of those guys. I do remember there being some optimism from fans that if one of Bowker/Lambo/Clement could figure things out, then all of these trades would be worthwhile. They never did though. Lopez went on to have a nice career with the Giants. Not saying the Pirates should have kept him or anything, but just wondering if there was some other player they could have went after instead of Bowker (everything you read from back then had said that he had never looked very good during his short stints with the Giants).
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: D

This sort of ends the Dark Times Era for Neal Huntington (2007-2010). The trading began with sending Salomon Torres to the Brewers and ended the 2010 season with the Lopez trade. We now go into the trades that were made to actually help the team during contention. I know, this is such an alien concept.

Since this post is becoming a bit long, I think this will be a good point to stop…

TO BE CONTINUED!!!

 

 

Author: Ngewo

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