Grading a MLB GM’s Trading Skills Part 2

This is the second part in my examination of how good Neal Huntington has been regarding trades. I suggest going back and reading part one.

During the 2011 season there were trades that were made to help the club because of injuries, such as Michael McKenry from the Red Sox. It was a great trade for the Buccos and basically cost them next to nothing. Another trade that people will remember is the Ryan Ludwick trade at the deadline. He did not work out quite the way the Pirates had hoped (neither did Matt Diaz, who the Pirates signed in the offseason), but again, it did not cost them much (if I remember correctly, the Pirates just gave the Padres money).

Holy Crap! We Traded For Derrek Lee!!!
On July 30th, the Pirates were 54-51 and 3.5 games behind the Brewers for the Central Division lead. They were still in it and fans wanted to see something happen. They wanted NH to trade for some power hitter. And the Pirates did, they traded Aaron Baker to the Orioles for Derrek Lee. Most fans could remember Lee destroying Pirates pitchers for years with the Cubs. He immediately made an impact, in fact he his 7 HRs for the Pirates and contributed .9 WAR, which is almost one full win above replacement. The Pirates ended up collapsing and finishing 72-90, but it was not because of Lee. Had the Pirates continued playing the way they had until July 31st, his contribution may have been enough to keep up with the Brewers and Cardinals.

This trade was important to Pirates fans because it showed that NH and the front office were committed to building a winner. They were not afraid to trade for someone that would be a rental and that stockpiling those prospects was going to be useful for acquiring big league talent. There were some fans that were pretty high on Baker, but you have to give something up to get something in return. And guess what? Baker never made it past AA.
Contextual Verdict: A
Hindsight Verdict: A

The collapse of 2011 was hard for Pirates fans and Neal decided to make some moves in the offseason to rectify that situation.

The Mighty Casey…
The first big trade came in December. NH sent Jose Veras to the Brewers for Casey McGehee. This was major league talent for major league talent. I think the Brewers were done with McGehee and needed some relief help, whereas the Pirates needed a platoon partner with Garrett Jones. McGehee was not terrible in that role for the Pirates and he was actually an okay bench player.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: B-

STFD!
Then the world exploded. In February of 2012, it was announced that the Pirates had acquired A.J. Burnett from the Yankees for Exicardo Cayones & DIego Moreno. Oh and the Pirates got the Yankees to eat like $20 million of A.J.’s contract. It was very exciting as a Pirates fan. Granted, Burnett had not been stellar with the Yankees, but I think most of us knew that he could improve coming back to the National League. Also, it was just so cool having an actual player on the team who had signed one of those big contracts before. He was a legitimate star. And he helped bring an air of credibility to Pittsburgh. I do not even have to mention how good he was with the Pirates, do I? Yeah, this was such a great trade.
Contextual Verdict: A
Hindsight Verdict: A

I’m Feeling Wandy, Baby!
July 24th and the Pirates are in 2nd place with a 54-42 record. No way can they collapse again, right? I was at the game that night and when I got in my car (after seeing the Pirates lose to Paul Maholm and the Cubs), I heard that the Pirates just traded for Wandy Rodriguez. They had to give up Rudy Owens, Colton Cain, and Robbie Grossman. I actually liked what I saw of Grossman, but knew that the Pirates needed another starting pitcher. I also knew that there was no way they would try to trade for Zack Greinke or Hunter Pence (if I remember correctly, was this the season they were trying pretty hard for Pence or was that 2011?). Wandy did not really work out (well in 2012 he did, he was actually pretty much what they needed, especially since McDonald was starting to collapse). However, after that he was riddled with injuries (back problems if I recall). Grossman ended up being the best player out of the trade and I think is still a contributor for the Twins.
Contextual Verdict: B+
Hindsight Verdict: C

Umm, Gaby Sanchez?
The Pirates then traded Gorkys Hernandez to the Marlins for Gaby Sanchez & Kyle Kaminska. At this point, the Pirates knew what they had in Gorkys (aside from someone with an awesome name): a possible 5th outfielder, who was really fast, but not good for much else. The fact that the Marlins gave up on Sanchez after having two pretty good seasons, makes it seem like they knew the flaws in the player and were done trying to fix him. He ended up being okay as a bench player for the Pirates. Fun fact: the Marlins also received a compensatory draft pick (I think the Pirates traded it to them) and they took a guy who did not sign, so it really did not work out for them.
Contextual Verdict: C+
Hindsight Verdict: C+

I Got My Lunchbox For My Lincoln
The Brad Lincoln for Travis Snider trade befuddled me when it happened. Lincoln had actually become a very good relief pitcher for the Pirates after never living up to being a #4 pick. Snider seemed to be another in the mold of Clement, Bowker, Lambo. He had been a highly touted prospect, who just could not replicate that AAA success in the majors. At the time it seemed so stupid to give up a relief pitcher who was very good, while trying to stay in contention. Oddly enough, NH must have been psychic. Snider did figure things out for the Pirates and Lincoln collapsed with the Blue Jays. Snider was nothing amazing for the Pirates, but fans loved him and he definitely had some great moments (including a pretty interesting trade later).
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: B+

You’re Killin’ Me Qualls!
With the addition of Gaby Sanchez, it seemed Casey McGehee was no longer needed. So NH shipped him off to the Yankees for Chad Qualls. This was another oddity for me. I remember thinking how stupid it was to mess with the bullpen that way. Qualls was not good for the Pirates. I have heard some fans also claim that McGehee was such a clubhouse leader that when they traded him, that is what caused the 2012 collapse. Not sure I buy that one, but the Pirates were 59-44 at the time and they finished 79-83. I totally blame Qualls.
Contextual Verdict: D
Hindsight Verdict: D

So close to that mythical promised land of 81+ wins. And the offseason comes and NH decides to make some interesting moves.

Ray’s New Project
The first trade of the offseason was for Vin Mazzaro & Clint Robinson from the Royals. The Pirates gave up a pair Luises (Rico & Santos). Vin was a failed starter for the Royals, I think they were pretty much fed up with him. The Pirates moved him to the bullpen and he was actually very good for them. The players the Royals received never did anything. I remember this being a trade where people were actively excited that Ray Searage could perhaps work his magic and Vin could regain some of that minor league magic. It was one of those high upside/low downside deals.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: B+

The “OH MY GAWD, WHAT IS NEAL DOING?” Trade
The day after Christmas, Pirates fans received a bit of a shock. Joel Hanrahan had been traded to the Red Sox. The Pirates sent Hanrahan and Brock Holt to the Red Sox for Mark Melancon, Jerry Sands, Ivan de Jesus, and Stolmy Pimentel. I remember this being a fairly contentious trade among fans. The advanced stat people were saying things like “this was the best time to trade Hanrahan, his value is high, but if you look at his peripheral stats, they are declining. Also, Grilli pitched in the higher leverage situations, so he will be just fine as the closer.” The more traditional fans screamed “why would you mess with our great bullpen! He had 76 saves in two seasons!” Personally, I was somewhere in the middle. I had enough trust in Neal to make the right move, but it definitely seemed odd. I actually believed that Melancon could bounce back to his Astros days level of play, but my big concern was whether or not Grilli was going to be able to handle the move to closer. I do remember being upset about losing Holt. I saw him at Altoona a bunch and really liked him. I thought he had the potential to be a very good player for the Pirates.

As it turns out…this trade definitely went in the Pirates favor. Neal must have known something about Joel Hanrahan. He ended up getting hurt and was never the same and retired a few years later. I think we all know the Melancon story: dominates as the set-up guy for Grilli, then takes over the closer role and dominates for a few seasons before being traded to the Nationals for Felipe Rivero. Brock Holt went to be an All-Star (hence the near equality in WAR). However, I would say that because of WAR’s limitations on relievers, I think the Pirates definitely won out on this deal. Stolmy never lived up to what the Pirates hoped he would become (I remember people were so excited about his “upside”, ugh…I am so sick of hearing about upside, potential, ceiling, etc) and the other two never materialized as anything of value for the Pirates, but Melancon more than makes up for the other three.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: A

Dr. R. Quincy, M.E.
Three people will get that reference. Anyways, the Pirates traded Quincy Latimore to the Indians for Jeanmar Gomez. For some reason fans liked Quincy. He was not all that good in the minors (he did have some power, he hit 15 HRs, two years in a row with Altoona), he had a weak average, OBP, etc. But, he had enough pop that people felt like the Pirates were giving up on him. On the other side, Gomez was a pretty lackluster pitcher for the Indians. The Pirates ended up using him in long-relief and a few spot starts, and to be honest, he was not terrible for them. I only mention this minor trade because it goes to further illustrate that NH (or someone on his staff) is pretty good at recognizing potential relievers or relievers who could be on the cusp of a breakout.
Contextual Verdict: C+
Hindsight Verdict: B+

A Byrd in the Hand is Worth…
The trade dead came and went in 2013 without the Pirates making any noise. The Pirates had the best record in baseball, so why should they make moves? Then August came and by the 26th, the Pirates were the 4th best team in the NL, with the Reds breathing down their neck for that first WC spot, and Arizona only a few game back from that second one. McKenry was injured and the Pirates needed some upgrades in RF and 1B. So they traded for Marlon Byrd and John Buck. The Mets received Vic Black & Dilson Herrera. Again, this was a contentious trade among the fans. The prospect crowd hated losing Black/Herrera, especially for a rental like Byrd (who was having a pretty great season for a 36 year old and would be an automatic improvement for the Pirates. I think we all remembered what happened. Byrd was pretty awesome (.318 BA, .843 OPS), but it would not have mattered if he sucked. He will always be remembered for his home run in the WC game against the Reds. To be fair, he was also really good during the NLDS. He was everything the Pirates could have hoped for and more as an end of August waiver trade pickup.

What about Black and Herrera? They actually both played for the Mets at some point and were not bad. I remember fans being upset that the Pirates gave up Vic Black because he was such a hard-throwing reliever. But that is how trades should work. Both teams should get something. It is great when your team can pull off a trade that gives the other team a bunch of crap, but do that too often, and teams will stop trading with you.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: A

Morneau to the Rescue
I feel like fans were more accepting of the Justin Morneau trade (at least the casual fans) because he was a more recognizable name. There were fans upset about giving up Alex Presley (I will never understand that one) and the prospect folks were screaming over Duke Welker. I remember that season being the year of the 100 mph pitchers. A bunch of sites made a huge deal about how the Pirates went from having no guys in their entire system who could hit 100 mph, to now having a bunch (Welker and Black among them). And it seemed like the Pirates were just throwing that all away!

Morneau was decent for the Pirates. Maybe he brought some leadership qualities that are not quantifiable. I will always remember him for his role in helping to score a run in the WC game. Byrd hit what should have been a bases-loaded, inning ending double play. Brandon Phillips catches the ball and turns to throw to second, but Morneau coming from first, just stops. BP freezes and seems confused as to what to do. Walker scores and Byrd ends up safe at first. It was a weird play, but it was cool, heads up baseball on Morneau’s part. Anyways, Presley never did much for the Twins and the Pirates ended up trading for Welker in the offseason.
Contextual Verdict: B+
Hindsight Verdict: A

The Pirates crossed the hump. They were free of the losing streak and ready to get back to the postseason in 2014…so what moves did they make?

Nothing to Jaff About
This move is really inconsequential, but I want to mention it. The Pirates traded Alex Dickerson for Jaff Decker & Miles Mikolas. I remember people being very high on this trade because Decker was a former first round pick and he may not have lived up to his potential, but perhaps a change in scenery would help. Dickerson was just a minor league 1B/RF who hit fairly well at Altoona. I remember seeing him and thinking he could be that left-handed power hitter the Pirates were looking for all those years (LEFTY MCTHUMP!!!). Well, Decker did nothing for the Pirates, he was actually pretty bad. Dickerson was pretty decent with the Padres in 2016 (I believe he missed last season due to injury). Not saying he is a superstar or anything, but I think the Pirates were too quick to be rid of him (for that thing NH loves so much: former 1st rounders/top prospects). Quick aside…the Pirates ended up trading Mikolas to the Rangers, where he was pretty bad. He ended up pitching in Japan for a few years and doing quite well. He signed with the Cardinals and projects to be their fifth starter this year.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: D

The Missing Piece!
Another trade that seems almost inconsequential. Chris Stewart from the Yankees for Kyle Haynes. From a WAR standpoint, it seems like Stewart was worth nothing to the Pirates. However, he ended up serving as a fantastic backup for Russell Martin. He hit .294 in 49 games. He was worth .6 WAR that season, I would say that is pretty good for a backup catcher. His numbers declined in 2016/2017, which basically canceled out his first two good seasons. Since Haynes never did anything in the majors, I would still say this trade was a win for the Pirates. It also gave NH the chance to finally cut ties with Tony Sanchez. Well after 2015 (but they signed Stewart for a few more seasons then). We all liked Sanchez, but he was not that great and he was a wasted draft pick for NH.
Contextual Verdict: C
Hindsight Verdict: B-

Ray Does It Again
How many pitchers has Ray Searage fixed during his time with the Pirates? The Pirates traded for Vance Worley from the Twins for cash. It looked like Jameson Taillon was dealing some injuries (I think this was when he needed surgery) and Volquez was not very good in the spring, so the Pirates needed a backup plan. Well, as it turned out, Volquez ended up being fine. Worley was more than fine though, he made 17 starts and was 8-4 for the Pirates. His numbers were pretty good, especially for a number six starter.
Contextual Verdict: C+
Hindsight Verdict: A-

I Wanna Be Like Ike
Too bad that Ray Searage cannot fix hitters. Imagine for a second that all of those castaway hitters that NH likes to collect ended up reaching their potential under the Pirates. NH traded for Ike Davis at the beginning of the 2014 season. I think the Mets had officially given up on Davis. For good reason, none of that power ever came back (he hit 32 HRs two years before) and was pretty terrible for the Pirates. The Mets got Zack Thornton and Blake Taylor, who were decent prospects, but they never amounted to much for the Mets. Taylor is still in low A and Zack was pitching at AAA, but last year was in the Independent League. At the time, this seemed like a good move. I mean, if Davis hit for any power, then it was a win. But in the end, the trade worked out for no one.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: C-

Ernesto Grilli Ravioli Spaghetti
Speaking of being fed up. Remember when Jason Grilli wrote a book about how crazy he was amazing (and sort of like Jesus)? Look, it was a weird thing and he did not come off as a particularly sane person. So when he started to struggle in 2014, NH was pretty quick to trade him to the Angels for their struggling reliever: Ernesto Frieri. It was a sad moment, and I have no clue if Grilli’s book had any bearing on the decision (I feel like Pirates bloggers were claiming that), but in the end it proved to not be a good move. Grilli bounced back in Los Angeles (and was good the next season with the Braves), but Frieri was absolutely awful for the Pirates. I think they ended up just releasing him.
Contextual Verdict: C+
Hindsight Verdict: D

The Pirates remained quiet at the trade deadline. I remember they were linked to David Price (sometimes I wish they would have taken that deal, but that is something for another time) and also Jon Lester (I am glad they passed on that one). You may also remember how the season ended, with Madison Bumgarner shutting down the Pirates in the WC game. During the offseason, NH made some moves, mostly due to necessity. NH made a bunch of moves before the season and during the year. I will not list them all, but all of them helped the Pirates end up with the second best record in baseball, but still had to play in the WC game.

When The Moon Hits Your Eye…
The Pirates lost Russell Martin to free agency, which was quite the blow. I remember fans being upset that the Pirates did not try to sign him. Neal had another trick up his sleeve. He traded for Yankees catcher, Francisco Cervelli. NH gave up Justin Wilson, who was a fairly good reliever (another one of those 100 mph guys), but there was some high upside for Cervelli. People said he was fantastic defensively and that he was almost as good as Martin at pitch-framing. He ended up being better than advertised. Wilson was alright for the Yankees.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: A

Three Role Players
Okay, I will lump these three together: Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, and Arquimedes Caminero. NH traded for those three at different points and only had to give up Buddy Borden, Joely Rodriguez, and some cash. Neal knew what he was doing getting those guys, S-Rod actually overachieved for the Pirates (hell, so much so that they traded to have him back after he left). And they gave up basically nothing for those guys.
Contextual Verdict: B+
Hindsight Verdict: A

Fans Cried A Bit
The Pirates traded Travis Snider, who the fans absolutely loved, to the Orioles for two highly touted pitching prospects. Half the fanbase freaked out over this one and the other half could not believe NH pulled off two good pitchers for Snider. The Pirates received Steven Brault and Stephen Tarpley (who they later flipped for Ivan Nova). Hard to figure out if this was a win for the Pirates yet, I think Brault will end up being fairly okay for the Pirates. Snider was okay for the Orioles, but the ended up releasing him and the Pirates signed him back. So basically the Orioles gave the Pirates Brault and Tarpley for a few months of Snider.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: B+

Aramis Ramirez Comes Back
The Brewers sent Ramirez to the Pirates for Yhonathan Barrios and some cash. Ramirez was at the end of his career, but the Pirates were dealing with some injuries (Mercer and Harrison). I know that WAR says A-Ram was not much of a contributor, but I do not buy it. He played well enough at 3B and allowed Kang to play SS. As the trade deadline came in July, NH reminded fans that they did not need to go out and trade for someone else because they were getting Mercer/JHay back soon (was McCutchen injured for a short time that season too? Maybe the back stuff after the D-backs hit him…). There was also the positive idea that Aramis could platoon with Pedro Alvarez. It was also cool to see him end his career where it all started.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: B-

More Minor Moves (Not So Minor After All)
Another bunch of moves that helped the Pirates almost win 100 games. They traded for Joe Blanton (for cash), Joakim Soria (for JaCoby Jones), Mike Morse (for Jose Tabata), and J.A. Happ (for Adrian Sampson). Does anyone even remember Morse playing for the Pirates that year? He was not very good, but it was for Tabata, so no loss. The other three though? They were good and the players they gave up were not that significant. Happ ended up being the best of them and he is another guy that Ray “fixed.” Sampson was one of those guys that rose up the Pirates prospect rankings and the prospect people were a little upset about the loss. However, this was what I wanted to see from NH. Take those numerous prospects and flip them for guys who could help you win. Did the Pirates have to sell the entire farm system for J.A. Happ? Nope. Did they expect him to be as good as he was? Well no, but they saw something and knew they could work with it. But it would cost a prospect.
Contextual Verdict: B
Hindsight Verdict: A-

The Pirates lost the WC game to Jake Arrieta. And the next offseason was a little bit odd for fans.

The Pittsburgh Kid Goes to New York
NH traded Neil Walker to the Mets for Jonathon Niese. This trade did not work out. Niese was pretty terrible (so bad that the Pirates traded him back to the Mets for Bastardo). Most Pirates fans hated the trade because Walker was a beloved hometown kid. Hell, even NH said that it was a bad trade. I will grant some points to NH, many stat fans thought Niese was a good candidate for Ray Searage.
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: F

Electric Stuff Goes Bye
Another trade that made very little sense. They traded Charlie Morton to the Phillies for David Whitehead. Morton had injury issues, but when healthy, he was a good back end of the rotation guy, who could eat some innings. Whitehead never amounted to anything for the Pirates. If I remember correctly, the Pirates ended up having some starting pitching issues in 2016. Not saying Morton would have helped much, but he would have been better than Niese.
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: D

The Brewers Get Their J-Hay
In the final offseason head-scratching move, NH traded Keon Broxton & Trey Supak to the Brewers for Jason Rogers. Yep, Rogers was one of those hitters who did really well in the minors and then did nothing in the majors. Most people were confused as to the reason for the trade, since the Pirates had Michael Morse as first base depth. They eventually released Morse and signed David Freese. I guess the hope was Rogers could reach max potential, which would be much better than Morse. Anyways, the Brewers got Broxton, who ended up playing centerfield, but also a little everywhere. He reminded me that season of Josh Harrison. Definitely a win for the Brewers.
Contextual Verdict: C-
Hindsight Verdict: F

The season did not go so great for the Pirates. However, on July 29th, the Pirates were 52-49 and 3.0 games back of the Cardinals for the second wild card. Then NH started making trades.

We Lost Our Closer
The first trade was Mark Melancon to the Nationals for Felipe Rivero & Taylor Hearn. Fans were pretty irate. How can you be in the middle of a wild card chase and just trade your closer? Rivero has worked out fantastically for the Pirates (and Melancon was pretty good for the Nationals). The big problem was Melancon’s impending free agency. The Pirates could not sit on him because rumor had it that if they made him a qualifying offer, he would probably accept it because he loved playing for the Pirates. There were a few pretty crazy closer trades that summer and I always felt the Pirates could have demanded more from the Nationals, but whatever. Rivero ended up being more than enough.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: A

Liri-GONE-o
In the weirdest trade possible, NH traded Francisco Liriano to the Blue Jays. Most fans reacted this way “oh, they traded Liriano, did they get some prospects?” Then we heard that the Pirates also gave up Reese McGuire & Harold Ramirez for Drew Hutchison. This trade still makes me angry. It was annoying that the front office would never give up prospects for any real players, but in a salary dump, then those guys are expendable. I hated reading all the people trying to defend it (people I highly respect) by saying that this trade freed up tons of money.
Contextual Verdict: D
Hindsight Verdict: F

The Pirates Went NOVA!!!
Not sure fans at all cared about the Ivan Nova trade with the Yankees. We flipped Stephen Tarpley and Tito Polo for the pitcher. Seriously, most fans yawned and stopped paying attention because the Pirates were mostly out of contention. Nova ended up being a nice surprise for the Pirates. He was 5-2 for the rest of the season and started off 2017 as one of the best pitchers in the National League, but then fell off. Searage’s magic only seems to last a few months.
Contextual Verdict: B-
Hindsight Verdict: B

The Pirates finished the 2016 season with a losing record. Those trades did not work out so well. I am going to stop here because it would be too hard to evaluate the 2017 trades. Now it is time to add up the grades and see how Neal fared. I used the standard 4.0 scale most of us remember from college (A=4.0, A-=3.7, B+=3.3…and so on).

Contextual Grade: 2.64
Hindsight Grade: 2.49

In the trading department Neal Huntington is a C+. Pretty much what we would expect. I honestly thought he might end up a little lower, but he did have some trades that really ended up huge for him.

 

Author: Ngewo