Bowl Game Picks Part VIII

My eighth attempt at picking the bowl games. Last year I did fairly well. I picked 60% of the winners, while also hitting about 51% of the spreads. My over/under percentage was a bit lower at 43%. This post will be your definitive guide for Bowl Season Betting (or at the very least, you can use this to see what times the games start, kind of like TV Guide, for those of us old enough to remember).

I should probably warn you that my research has been limited to seeing many of these teams, and paying attention all season. Unfortunately, I do not keep track of all the opt-outs. If someone pays me money to quit my job, then sure, I will factor all of those things into this. For the most part, I will be going off gut instinct, plus some of the bigger news (like Caleb Williams saying he will not play in their game). The rankings I use are from my week 14 rankings. 

Okay, here we go!

Myrtle Beach Bowl–December 16th at 11:00 a.m.
Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina
Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) vs. Ohio Bobcats (9-3)
Favorite: Georgia Southern (-3.5)
O/U: 48.5
My Score Prediction: 24-20 Ohio
My Take: Two of my favorite conferences going at each other. You all know how I love the MAC and Sun Belt, and how my love for those conferences causes me to be biased. I think this game will go to Ohio, who is playing well the last few weeks, and Georgia Southern has played poorly. 

New Orleans Bowl–December 16th at 2:15 p.m.
Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4) vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-6)
Favorite: Jacksonville State (-3.0)
O/U: 59.5
My Score Prediction: 31-24 Jacksonville State
My Take: RichRod seems to have this team ready to play most games. C-USA has taken some crap most of the year for being a weak conference, but I think this game ends up in their favor against a fairly weak team. 

Cure Bowl–December 16th at 3:30 p.m.
FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Miami RedHawks (11-2) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (8-5)
Favorite: Appalachian State (-5.5)
O/U: 47.5
My Score Prediction: 30-27 App State
My Take: I think the RedHawks cover, but App State pulls out the win. The Mountaineers are scrappy, and should find a way to take down the MAC Champs. 

New Mexico Bowl–December 16th at 5:45 p.m.
University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico 
New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4)
Favorite: New Mexico State (-3.5)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 17-13 New Mexico State
My Take: The Aggies have played well down the stretch, particularly with that big win against Auburn. Jerry Kill must hate Hugh Freeze. I wonder if Coach Tedford stepping away for health issues will have an effect on the Bulldogs. 

LA Bowl–December 16th at 7:30 p.m.
SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
UCLA Bruins (7-5) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-5)
Favorite: UCLA (-2.0)
O/U: 49.5
My Score Prediction: 42-30 UCLA
My Take: Chip Kelly needs a win here. I think the PAC-12 outclasses the MWC, and this is not the Boise State teams of years ago. Should be an easy win for the Bruins.

Independence Bowl–December 16th at 9:15 p.m. 
Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana
California Golden Bears (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6)
Favorite: Texas Tech (-3.0)
O/U: 58.5
My Score Prediction: 45-42 Cal
My Take: I love this bowl matchup! Two teams, who are probably a bit better than their records. The Bears are a young team, and I think this win would go a long way for setting up next season. 

Famous Toastery Bowl–December 18th at 2:30 p.m. 
Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (6-6)
Favorite: Old Dominion (-2.5)
O/U: 55.5
My Score Prediction: 24-17 Western Kentucky
My Take: I think ODU and makes some mistakes, which gives WKU a big lead. The Monarchs claw their way back, but ultimately fall short. Ricky Rahne does not get his first bowl win. Also, what the hell is this bowl game? Toastery???? Is that even a word.

Frisco Bowl–December 19th at 9:00 p.m. 
Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas
UTSA Roadrunners (8-4) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6)
Favorite: UTSA (-9.5)
O/U: 54.5
My Score Prediction: 28-21 UTSA
My Take: The Roadrunners were not nearly as impressive as last year, but still a good team. Jeff Traylor will earn his first bowl win against the Herd. Marshall has been all over the place this year. They barely beat Albany, gave NC State all they could handle, beat Virginia Tech, and lost to JMU, Coastal, App St by a combined 85-24. It would be very Marshall-y of them to lose a close game. 

Boca Raton Bowl–December 21st at 8:00 p.m. 
FAU Stadium at Boca Raton, Florida 
South Florida Bulls (6-6) vs. Syracuse Orange (6-6)
Favorite: Syracuse (-3.5)
O/U: 60.5
My Score Prediction: 31-17 Syracuse
My Take: The last time they played, USF spanked the crap out of ‘Cuse 45-20 in 2016. But those were better times for the Bulls. They went 11-2 under Willie Taggert. This year though, South Florida is known as the team that lost to Alabama 17-3, the game that Jalen Milroe was benched. I mean, not really something to hang your hat on. Neither team is good, but I think Syracuse wins this one easily. The ACC is slightly better than the AAC, right?

Gasparilla Bowl–December 22nd at 6:30 p.m. 
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida 
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6) vs. UCF Knights (6-6)
Favorite: UCF (-4.5)
O/U: 64.5
My Score Prediction: 45-41 UCF
My Take: The Knights started off Big XII play in a bit of a rut. They lost their first five conference games, then picked up a win against newcomer Cincinnati. The next week though, they destroyed Oklahoma State, and then lost a close one to Texas Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat UNC and Miami. Barely lost to Louisville and Georgia. This should be a good one. I think defense will be non-existent, and UCF will hang on for a wild win.

Camellia Bowl–December 23rd at 12:00 p.m. 
Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (6-6)
Favorite: Arkansas State (-1.0)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 27-24 Arkansas State
My Take: Are these the same teams? Same colors, similar mascots, both teams have a fantastic season every decade or so. Eh, I don’t think this ends up being a very interesting game. Sorry dog teams.

Birmingham Bowl–December 23rd at 12:00 p.m. 
Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama 
#21 Troy Trojans (11-2) vs. Duke Blue Devils (7-5)
Favorite: Troy (-7.5)
O/U: 43.5
My Score Prediction: 21-17 Troy
My Take: The Trojans have a solid defense, and without Riley Leonard, Duke is not very scary (although they were not very scary toward the end of the year anyway). This will be a low-scoring slog, I bet the punters get plenty of action.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl–December 23rd at 3:30 p.m. 
Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Georgia State Panthers (6-6) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6)
Favorite: Utah State (-0.5)
O/U: 62.5
My Score Prediction: 42-40 Georgia State
My Take: Wait a second…two blue teams. They could not switch up NIU and Utah State? I think this one could end up being a shootout. Not because they are offensive juggernauts, but mostly because neither team is particularly good on defense. Maybe we could combine this and the Famous Toastery Bowl and make some weird potato sandwich.

Armed Forces Bowl–December 23rd at 3:30 p.m. 
Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas 
#20 James Madison Dukes (11-1) vs. Air Force Falcons (8-4)
Favorite: JMU (-3.0)
O/U: 41.5
My Score Prediction: 41-28 JMU
My Take: I think JMU makes a statement with this win, particularly without Coach Cignetti. McCloud is saying he will play despite being in the transfer portal. Air Force will run the ball well, but they are not dynamic enough to keep up with the Dukes.

68 Ventures Bowl–December 23rd at 7:00 p.m. 
Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-6)
Favorite: South Alabama (-16.0)
O/U: 47.5
My Score Prediction: 24-13 South Alabama
My Take: I think the Jaguars win easily, but this does not get too crazy. EMU will cover that 16. Side note, what the hell is a 68 Ventures? Is this some stupid investment company? Ugh. 

Las Vegas Bowl–December 23rd at 7:30 p.m. 
Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada 
Utah Utes (8-4) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (7-5)
Favorite: Utah (-6.5)
O/U: 41.5
My Score Prediction: 24-21 Utah
My Take: Last year the Utes were in the Rose Bowl, getting trounced by the Nittany Lions. This year they head to the Las Vegas Bowl, and will have a real challenge against the Wildcats. I am taking Utah here, but have Northwestern to cover. Not going to lie though, I could see the Wildcats pulling off the upset. 

Hawai’i Bowl–December 23rd at 10:30 p.m. 
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawai’i 
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-5) vs. San Jose State Spartans (7-5)
Favorite: San Jose State (-10.0)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 28-9 San Jose State
My Take: Originally I had Coastal winning this game, but then I checked and McCall is not playing, as are a few other Chanticleers who have entered the portal. Yikes. I think Chevan Cordeiro has a big game for the Spartans. 

Quick Lane Bowl–December 26th at 2:00 p.m. 
Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-7)
Favorite: Minnesota (-3.5)
O/U: 38.5
My Score Prediction: 14-10 Bowling Green
My Take: Minnesota is not a very good team, and I think Bowling Green can defeat them. They already beat one P5 team this year, might as well take down another one. Also, and this is very weird, the last time they met, BGSU won 14-10 in 2021. I did not know that when I made my prediction. For full disclosure, I made the predictions in a spreadsheet (shocking, I know) a few days ago. Makes it easier to write this.

First Responder Bowl–December 26th at 5:30 p.m. 
Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas 
Texas State Bobcats (7-5) vs. Rice Owls (6-6)
Favorite: Texas State (-4.0)
O/U: 60.5
My Score Prediction: 38-28 Texas State
My Take: The Owls seem to keep games close, but I think in the end the Bobcats will be too much for them. I was going to make a joke about JT Daniels looking for another team, but then I remembered that he medically retired due to head injuries. I am going to bet money that in five years we hear about him as an OC somewhere. 

Guaranteed Rate Bowl–December 26th at 9:00 p.m. 
Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
Kansas Jayhawks (8-4) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-4)
Favorite: Kansas (-12.5)
O/U: 64.5
My Score Prediction: 41-31 Kansas
My Take: The Rebels were 7-17 the past two years, so going 9-4 this year was an incredible turnaround. The Jayhawks do not have Jalon Daniels (who has decided to stay at Kansas), but Jason Bean has proven to be a capable backup, and they will be too much UNLV.

Military Bowl–December 27th at 2:00 p.m. 
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland 
Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6) vs. Tulane Green Wave (11-2)
Favorite: Virginia Tech (-8.0)
O/U: 46.5
My Score Prediction: 23-21 Tulane
My Take: I am not sure why Tulane is such an underdog against the Hokies. I think Tulane has plenty of talent, and they can win against an average Virginia Tech team. 

Duke’s Mayo Bowl–December 27th at 5:30 p.m. 
Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina 
UNC Tar Heels (8-4) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (8-4)
Favorite: WVU (-5.5)
O/U: 55.5
My Score Prediction: 31-28 WVU
My Take: No Drake Maye for UNC, means the Tar Heels have almost no chance. But, WVU has this weird habit of allowing games to be close. Also, are Mack Brown and Neal Brown related? That would be an interesting story. 

Holiday Bowl–December 27th at 8:00 p.m. 
Petco Park in San Diego, California 
#15 Louisville Cardinals (10-3) vs. USC Trojans (7-5)
Favorite: Louisville (-7.5)
O/U: 57.5
My Score Prediction: 40-35 Louisville
My Take: A bit of a letdown for the Cardinals. You finish 10-3, and you get USC, who ended up being a huge letdown with that stellar defense. No Caleb Williams…yeah, the Cardinals win, but I think it ends up being closer than people expect. 

Texas Bowl–December 27th at 9:00 p.m. 
NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas 
Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) vs. #23 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4)
Favorite: Texas A&M (-3.0)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 26-20 Oklahoma State
My Take: The Cowboys are a better team than the Aggies. Maybe Texas A&M can use the money they earn from this game to keep paying Jimbo Fisher to stay home. 

Fenway Bowl–December 28th at 11:00 a.m. 
Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts 
#24 SMU Mustangs (11-2) vs. Boston College (6-6)
Favorite: SMU (-10.5)
O/U: 50.5
My Score Prediction: 21-7 SMU
My Take: WOO HOO WE WENT 11-2! Oh, we get Boston College in the Fenway Bowl. Seriously? I would rather see SMU take on Louisville. Some serious disrespect to the AAC champion.

Pinstripe Bowl–December 28th at 2:15 p.m. 
Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6-6) vs. Miami Hurricanes (7-5)
Favorite: Miami (-1.0)
O/U: 41.5
My Score Prediction: 17-14 Rutgers
My Take: I think this game could go either way, but I think if Rutgers can keep it low-scoring, they can win it. 

Pop-Tarts Bowl–December 28th at 5:45 p.m. 
Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida 
#18 North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)
Favorite: Kansas State (-3.0)
O/U: 47.5
My Score Prediction: 28-24 KSU
My Take: How the hell are there Pop-Tarts and Toastery Bowls? Please tell me at the end of the game, they dump pop-tarts all over the winning team. This should be a good game. I think the Wildcats pull out the win, but it could go either way. 

Alamo Bowl–December 28th at 9:15 p.m. 
Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas 
#14 Arizona Wildcats (9-3) vs. #12 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
Favorite: Arizona (3.0)
O/U: 62.5
My Score Prediction: 28-21 Arizona
My Take: The Sooners are not nearly as dynamic without Dillon Gabriel. The Wildcats have been playing some of the best football the second half of the season. I think Arizona wins, but Oklahoma makes it a game. 

Gator Bowl–December 29th at 12:00 p.m. 
EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida 
#25 Clemson Tigers (8-4) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (7-5)
Favorite: Clemson (-4.5)
O/U: 46.5
My Score Prediction: 17-9 Clemson
My Take: Three games in a row with a wildcat mascot. That is WILD! Unfortunately, these Wildcats are not ferocious enough to take down the Tigers. Wow, I hate myself for these terrible jokes.

Sun Bowl–December 29th at 2:00 p.m. 
Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas 
#17 Oregon State Beavers (8-4) vs. #16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3)
Favorite: Notre Dame (-6.5)
O/U: 43.5
My Score Prediction: 21-13 Notre Dame
My Take: The Irish defense will be enough to handle the Beavers. I am annoyed that Sam Hartman is not playing because I would love to see him add on a few more touchdowns and move up that all-time touchdown list. Whatever Sam, have fun preparing for the draft. Hope you enjoy getting drafted by the Jets.

Liberty Bowl–December 29th at 3:30 p.m. 
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee 
Memphis Tigers (9-3) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (7-5)
Favorite: Iowa State (-8.5)
O/U: 57.5
My Score Prediction: 24-20 Iowa State
My Take: Are either of these teams interesting? Nope. The Cyclones will win a close, boring game. 

Cotton Bowl–December 29th at 8:00 p.m.
AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
#9 Missouri Tigers (10-2) vs. #7 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Favorite: Mizzou (-2.5)
O/U: 48.5
My Score Prediction: 21-17 Ohio State
My Take: I am not going to speculate on next season stuff, like who will replace Kyle McCord. I guess Kyle is not playing in the Cotton Bowl, so it makes sense that the Tigers are the favorite. However, I am not going to count the Buckeyes out just yet. They have a few weeks to prepare, and they have talent up and down their roster. I think they still win this game. 

Peach Bowl–December 30th at 12:00 p.m. 
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
#11 Ole Miss Rebels (10-2) vs. #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
Favorite: Penn State (-3.5)
O/U: 48.5
My Score Prediction: 28-14 PSU
My Take: I joked a few times this year that Penn State and Ole Miss are the same team. They both have great fanbases, who think their team is one of the elite programs in their conference. They routinely go 10-2, but end up losing to the big teams in the conference. This will be a fun game. I think the Nittany Lion defense will be too much for the Rebels, even without players who opt-out for the NFL draft. I also believe the running backs will have a nice game. I predict one monster run from Nick Singleton.

Music City Bowl–December 30th at 2:00 p.m.
Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee 
Auburn Tigers (6-6) vs. Maryland Terrapins (7-5)
Favorite: Auburn (-2.5)
O/U: 49.5
My Score Prediction: 31-17 Maryland
My Take: Listen, I am still high on Maryland. I think they are a good team, and I truly believe if they were in the Big Ten West, they would have been a nine or ten win team. Auburn sucks. 

Orange Bowl–December 30th at 4:00 p.m. 
Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
#6 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1) vs. #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0)
Favorite: Georgia (-14.0)
O/U: 44.5
My Score Prediction: 21-10 Georgia
My Take: The Seminoles got screwed by the Playoff Committee. I would love it if they knocked off Georgia with a backup quarterback. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening. But I do think the FSU defense keeps it close and low-scoring.

Arizona Bowl–December 30th at 4:30 p.m. 
Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona 
Toledo Rockets (11-2) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4)
Favorite: Wyoming (-3.0)
O/U: 44.5
My Score Prediction: 31-24 Toledo
My Take: The Rockets should have went undefeated. Annoying that they ended with two losses. Losing to a team they already beat, and that first game against Illinois on a last-second field goal. Wyoming beat Texas Tech (who ended up almost beating Oregon–that was a weird game). Toledo will win this game if they go over the 44.5 total. If it stays under, I expect Wyoming to win it. I like to hedge my bets here. 

ReliaQuest Bowl–January 1st at 12:00 p.m. 
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida 
Wisconsin Badgers (7-5) vs. #13 LSU Tigers (9-3)
Favorite: LSU (-11.0)
O/U: 55.5
My Score Prediction: 35-7 LSU
My Take: The Badgers are not going to help bolster the Big Ten’s reputation. I am confused as to why these two are playing. Also, what a stupid name. I guess Outback Steakhouse can no longer afford that sponsorship. Wisconsin’s only chance is if Jayden Daniels decides not to play. But even then, I think LSU still smokes them. 

Citrus Bowl–January 1st at 1:00 p.m. 
Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida 
#22 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (8-4)
Favorite: Tennessee (-8.5)
O/U: 36.5
My Score Prediction: 17-9 Tennessee
My Take: I will not even try to hide my hatred for Iowa. I know I am biased against them. I try not to be, but I am human. With that out of the way, I think the Hawkeyes do their normal thing of playing great defense and keeping the game close, but they just do not have the offensive ability to pull off the win.

Fiesta Bowl–January 1st at 1:00 p.m.
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona 
#19 Liberty Flames (13-0) vs. #8 Oregon Ducks (11-2)
Favorite: Oregon (-17.5)
O/U: 65.5
My Score Prediction: 35-10 Oregon
My Take: Bo Nix and the Ducks will want to go out on a high note, and what better way than to give Liberty their first loss of the season. I would not be shocked if it gets out of control, and Oregon puts up 50+. 

CFP Semifinal–Rose Bowl–January 1st at 5:00 p.m. 
Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California 
#1 Michigan Wolverines (13-0) vs. #5 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
Favorite: Michigan (-1.0)
O/U: 45.5
My Score Prediction: 27-24 Michigan
My Take: I know, I know…there is a whole narrative out there about how Michigan looked scared to play Alabama during the selection announcement. Or how Alabama is going to want to destroy Michigan in order to prove they belong there. However, I think the Wolverines will be ready for Jalen Milroe and the Crimson Tide. It will be a close game, but Michigan will prevail.

CFP Semifinal–Sugar Bowl–January 1st at 8:45 p.m. 
Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
#4 Texas Longhorns (12-1) vs. #2 Washington Huskies (13-0)
Favorite: Texas (-4.0)
O/U: 63.5
My Score Prediction: 38-35 Washington
My Take: The Huskies have been tested so many times this year, and came out on top each time. I think they do it one more time. If I am right about these games, this would be the first time since the 2014-15 championship game to not feature an SEC team.