Bowl Game Picks Part IX

Nine years of making Bowl Game picks. Last year I picked 25 winners, which was good for 61%. I was able to pick the spread correctly at 54.88%, but as always the Over/Under was worse, which was only 43.90%. I would like to point out that I almost perfectly predicted the college football playoffs, even down to the scores. This year I will do a separate post for the playoffs, which means there are a few less games to worry about.

I need to remind everyone to gamble responsibly. But honestly, if you are using my blog as a guide, you are clearly not responsible. 

Celebration Bowl–December 14th at 12:00 p.m.
Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Jackson State Tigers (11-2) vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (9-2)
Favorite: Jackson State (-1.5)
O/U: 54.5
My Score Prediction: 23-20 JSU
My Take: I have no clue about this one.

Salute to Veterans Bowl–December 14th at 9:00 p.m.
Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
South Alabama Jaguars (6-6) vs. Western Michigan Broncos (6-6)
Favorite: South Alabama (-10.0)
O/U: 59.5
My Score Prediction: 31-17 South Alabama
My Take: Bad offense meets a bad defense. I think the Jaguars can put up more points than the Broncos. Major Applewhite gets a bowl win in his first season as head coach.

Frisco Bowl–December 17th at 9:00 p.m.
Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas
Memphis Tigers (10-2) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (6-6)
Favorite: Memphis (-2.0)
O/U: 56.5
My Score Prediction: 28-24 Memphis
My Take: Memphis is a real team, I think they beat the Mountaineers with their passing game (WVU gives up lots of yards through the air, and Memphis likes to throw). I could see this game getting ugly, but something tells me West Virginia will want to prove to themselves that they were a good team.

Boca Raton Bowl–December 18th at 5:30 p.m.
FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) vs. James Madison Dukes (8-4)
Favorite: JMU (-7.5)
O/U: 54.5
My Score Prediction: 34-23 JMU
My Take: This is not the same Dukes team as last year, but they are still solid. WKU has been all over the place this year, they beat Jacksonville State two weeks ago, then got destroyed by them in the C-USA Championship game, so who knows which team shows up.

LA Bowl–December 18th at 9:00 p.m.
SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
California Golden Bears (6-6) vs. UNLV Rebels (10-3)
Favorite: Cal (-2.5)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 17-14 UNLV
My Take: The Rebels have two losses to Boise State. Cal does not have a great running game, so that should help UNLV. The other loss was to Syracuse, who beat California. I think UNLV runs all over the Bears, but if Mendoza plays, I think he makes it a close game. 

New Orleans Bowl–December 19th at 7:00 p.m.
Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4) vs. Sam Houston Bearkats (9-3)
Favorite: Georgia Southern (-5.5)
O/U: 46.5
My Score Prediction: 24-10 Georgia Southern
My Take: I am pulling for Sam Houston to win in their first bowl game, but I have a feeling without Coach Keeler, the team will just play lackluster against Helton’s Eagles. 

Cure Bowl–December 20th at 12:00 p.m.
Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Ohio Bobcats (10-3) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (9-4)
Favorite: Ohio (-2.0)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 38-35 Ohio
My Take: MAC vs. CUSA!!! The Bobcats win in a shootout against RichRod’s ‘Cocks. 

Gasparilla Bowl–December 20th at 3:30 p.m.
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Tulane Green Wave (9-4) vs. Florida Gators (7-5)
Favorite: Florida (-12.0)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 23-14 Florida
My Take: The Gators want to build on a three game winning streak. I feel like Tulane is not nearly as good as I thought most of the year.

Myrtle Beach Bowl–December 23rd at 11:00 a.m.
Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (6-6) vs. UTSA Roadrunners (6-6)
Favorite: UTSA (-6.5)
O/U: 56.5
My Score Prediction: 44-31 UTSA
My Take: The Roadrunners started off meh, but finished the year strong, even with that close loss to Army. Coastal Carolina probably gets crushed in this one. Sorry Chanticleers!

Potato Bowl–December 23rd at 2:30 p.m.
Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Northern Illinois Huskies (7-5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (6-6)
Favorite: Northern Illinois (-2.5)
O/U: 41.5
My Score Prediction: 17-13 Northern Illinois
My Take: This one will probably be a snooze fest. Not like last time when they played (2010–NIU won 40-17).

Hawai’i Bowl–December 24th at 8:00 p.m.
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii
South Florida Bulls (6-6) vs. San Jose State Spartans (7-5)
Favorite: San Jose State (-2.5)
O/U: 62.5
My Score Prediction: 37-33 San Jose State
My Take: My gut says that SJSU is the better team, and that this game becomes one of those defense is optional games. 

Sports Bowl–December 26th at 2:00 p.m.
Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5) vs. Toledo Rockets (7-5)
Favorite: Pitt (-9.0)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 23-20 Pitt
My Take: It will be an ugly win, but the Panthers will find a way. If not, they would be looking at a six game losing streak to end the year. Not good.

Rate Bowl–December 26th at 5:30 p.m.
Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)
Favorite: Kansas State (-7.5)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 28-24 Rutgers
My Take: I was going to say Rutgers keeps it close, but you know what? I think they can beat K-State. I think the Big Ten shows up in the bowl games to make a point.

68 Ventures Bowl–December 26th at 9:00 p.m.
Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama
Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (7-5)
Favorite: Bowling Green (-6.5)
O/U: 49.5
My Score Prediction: 34-24 Bowling Green
My Take: If the BG team that played Penn State and Texas A&M hard shows up to this game, it should be an easy win for the Falcons.

Armed Forces Bowl–December 27th at 12:00 p.m.
Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Oklahoma Sooners (6-6) vs. Navy Midshipmen (8-3)
Favorite: Oklahoma (-8.5)
O/U: 44.5
My Score Prediction: 24-20 Oklahoma
My Take: A top ten rushing attack vs. a top rushing defense. This should be a fun battle. I think the Sooners defense will be too much for Navy, but it will be a close game.

Birmingham Bowl–December 27th at 3:30 p.m.
Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7-5) vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-6)
Favorite: Georgia Tech (-2.5)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 31-28 GT
My Take: This has the makings of a great game. Haynes King vs. Diego Pavia. Two scrappy underdog teams, both with big wins (GT started the season with an upset of FSU–probably helped facilitate their downfall, as well as an upset over Miami, and Vandy upset Alabama) plus close losses to top teams (Georgia and Texas). This game will be a back & forth battle, but in the end I think the Yellow Jackets come out on top.

Liberty Bowl–December 27th at 7:00 p.m.
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee
Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6)
Favorite: Arkansas (-2.5)
O/U: 59.5
My Score Prediction: 44-36 Texas Tech
My Take: This will probably be the game I am most wrong about…I think Tech is a good team, and I have been burnt by Arkansas too many times. The Red Raiders put up a bunch of points in this game, and it is just too much for the Razorbacks. So that is my pick, the game will probably end up 9-6 Arkansas. That is how my luck usually goes.

Holiday Bowl–December 27th at 9:00 p.m.
Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California
#25 Syracuse Orange (9-3) vs. Washington State Cougars (8-4)
Favorite: Syracuse (-6.0)
O/U: 60.5
My Score Prediction: 48-31 Syracuse
My Take: Sorry Coug fans, but I think Kyle McCord and the Orange are going to launch bombs all day long. 

Las Vegas Bowl–December 27th at 10:00 p.m.
Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada
#21 Texas A&M Aggies (8-4) vs. USC Trojans (6-6)
Favorite: Texas A&M (-2.5)
O/U: 50.5
My Score Prediction: 31-10 Texas A&M
My Take: The Aggies are just going to be too much for the Trojans. I guess the betting experts have faith in Jayden Maiava keeping it close, but I think Texas A&M is just a much more complete team. I hope I am wrong, I want the Big Ten to sweep these matchups. 

Fenway Bowl–December 28th at 11:00 a.m.
Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts
UConn Huskies (8-4) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)
Favorite: UNC (-4.0)
O/U: 55.5
My Score Prediction: 21-17 UConn
My Take: How did UNC become bowl eligible? I do not remember them ever winning. I really hope the Huskies win this game so Jim Mora can get his first bowl victory.

Pinstripe Bowl –December 28th at 12:00 p.m.
Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York
Boston College Eagles (7-5) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-6)
Favorite: Nebraska (-4.0)
O/U: 45.5
My Score Prediction: 20-17 Boston College
My Take: The battle between coaches that Penn State fans wish would replace James Franklin (seriously, there is a weird subset of the PSU fan base who thinks we should rehire Bill O’Brien or Matt Rhule…the Rhule one is especially weird, since fans hate that Franklin has troubles with top ten teams, Rhule never beat a top ten team at Baylor or Nebraska..0-9 all-time, yeah he is the answer). Anyways, that was a bit of a side tangent. Nebraska lets everyone down once again by blowing a late lead against BC.

New Mexico Bowl –December 28th at 2:15 p.m.
University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (8-4)
Favorite: TCU (-10.0)
O/U: 60.5
My Score Prediction: 35-21 TCU
My Take: The Horned Frogs have some nice pieces, and this game could serve as a preview for next season, as long as the portal does not hurt them. Louisiana had a nice season, but this is the kind of game that reminds us that the Sun Belt is not at the level of the Big XII.

Pop-Tarts Bowl–December 28th at 3:30 p.m.
Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida
#22 Iowa State Cyclones (10-3) vs. #15 Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
Favorite: Miami (-1.0)
O/U: 55.5
My Score Prediction: 31-28 Miami
My Take: What a letdown for the Hurricanes! Things looked good early on, they were cruising to the playoffs, but then those pesky losses had to happen. This team can score points, but can the defense stop anyone? Will Cam Ward play in the bowl game or does he opt out? I think this game hinges on who is playing. If the Hurricanes want to prove the doubters wrong, it could be a rough day for Iowa State.

Arizona Bowl-December 28th at 4:30 p.m.
Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona
Miami RedHawks (8-5) vs. Colorado State Rams (8-4)
Favorite: Miami OH (-1.5)
O/U: 43.5
My Score Prediction: 13-3 Miami OH
My Take: I love when the two M conferences battle. Only two bowls this year between the two, can the MAC pull off the sweep?

Military Bowl–December 28th at 5:45 p.m.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland
East Carolina Pirates (7-5) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (6-6)
Favorite: NC State (-5.0)
O/U: 59.5
My Score Prediction: 27-24 NC State
My Take: The Wolfpack barely escape with a win against the Pirates. This will come down to a late score by NC State.

Alamo Bowl–December 28th at 7:30 p.m.
Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas
#18 BYU Cougars (10-2) vs. #20 Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
Favorite: Colorado (-2.0)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 31-27 BYU
My Take: I do not think Sanders or Hunter will play in this game. The Colorado offense will not be as potent, and that should give BYU a much easier time. But the Cougars like to make games close, so it will be a tight win. Also, when was the last time we got a conference matchup in a bowl game?

Independence Bowl–December 28th at 9:15 p.m.
Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana
Marshall Thundering Herd (10-3) vs. #19 Army Black Knights (11-1)
Favorite: Army (-9.0)
O/U: 48.5
My Score Prediction: 21-10
My Take: Army slows this game way down with their running attack, and by preventing Marshall from moving the ball. 

Music City Bowl–December 30th at 2:30 p.m.
Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) vs. Missouri Tigers (9-3)
Favorite: Missouri (-3.0)
O/U: 40.5
My Score Prediction: 9-3 Iowa
My Take: This will be the worst game imaginable. Two ugly offenses going against each other without their best players. Yay. The Hawkeyes will prevail with three field goals. I do not think either team reaches the Red Zone.

ReliaQuest Bowl–December 31st at 12:00 p.m.
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) vs. Michigan Wolverines (7-5)
Favorite: Alabama (-11.5)
O/U: 43.5
My Score Prediction: 17-10 Alabama
My Take: I would watch this matchup before any betting. It is hard to say who will be playing for Alabama in what they will perceive as a meaningless game. If the Wolverines play well, they can keep it close, and I could see them winning. Is this a rematch from a few years ago when Alabama was left out of the playoffs? This could end up like the 2019 Citrus Bowl when ‘Bama came in pissed off for missing the playoffs and decided to pound Michigan into the ground. But that could just be a Saban thing. 

Sun Bowl–December 31st at 2:00 p.m.
Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas
Louisville Cardinals (8-4) vs. Washington Huskies (6-6)
Favorite: Louisville (-4.5)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 37-33 Washington
My Take: The Huskies need something positive to head into 2025, what better way than by beating the Cardinals on NYE?

Citrus Bowl–December 31st at 3:00 p.m.
Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida
#13 South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) vs. #17 Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
Favorite: South Carolina (-10.5)
O/U: 47.5
My Score Prediction: 31-24 South Carolina
My Take: I am pulling for the Illini, but I just think the Gamecocks will be too much for them. 

Texas Bowl–December 31st at 3:30 p.m.
NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Baylor Bears (8-4) vs. LSU Tigers (8-4)
Favorite: LSU (-2.0)
O/U: 60.5
My Score Prediction: 45-38 Baylor
My Take: The Bears have won six in a row, and I think they make it seven with a win against the Tigers. I do not expect much defense in this game, and the over could be hit in the first half. 

Gator Bowl–January 2nd at 7:30 p.m.
EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida
#24 Duke Blue Devils (9-3) vs. #12 Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
Favorite: Ole Miss (-11.5)
O/U: 53.5
My Score Prediction: 37-10 Ole Miss
My Take: Listen, Lane Kiffin will want to show everyone just how much of a travesty it is that Ole Miss was left out of the playoffs. If he has all of his players, this could be a very ugly game. But, and this is a huge but…if they come in with an attitude of “we don’t wanna be here” or “we can win this game without Dart or our best players” then I could see Manny Diaz having his Blue Devils ready for a big upset. I am sure Diaz would love to shut Lane up. 

First Responder Bowl–January 3rd at 4:00 p.m.
Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas
North Texas Mean Green (6-6) vs. Texas State Bobcats (7-5)
Favorite: Texas State (-9.0)
O/U: 68.5
My Score Prediction: 51-42 Texas State
My Take: Two teams that love to score points. The Bobcats are just going to be too much for the Mean Green.

Mayo Bowl–January 3rd at 7:30 p.m.
Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6)
Favorite: Minnesota (-4.5)
O/U: 42.5
My Score Prediction: 20-14 Minnesota
My Take: Big Ten football at its finest! 

Bahamas Bowl–January 4th at 11:00 a.m.
Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas
Buffalo Bulls (8-4) vs. Liberty Flames (8-3)
Favorite: Liberty (-2.0)
O/U: 51.5
My Score Prediction: 35-14 Buffalo
My Take: The Bulls won the last time they played in this bowl game. I feel like the Flames may see a bit of an exodus into the portal, so they could be lacking some core elements. Or at least, I hope that is what happens.