Franklin Era: What Went Wrong

The big question so many of us have after the Franklin firing is “what went wrong?” And obviously people will say “he can’t win big games, duh!” And yes, that is a problem. But I want to dive into it a little bit more. So without further adieu, lets start speculating!

Big Game Failures
We all know the numbers
104-45 Record
6-6 Bowl Record
4-21 vs. Top 10 Teams
1-10 vs. Ohio State

There are some interesting nuggets hidden inside those numbers. Ohio State was only ranked below the top ten in one of their meetings (2014, they were #13, while Penn State was unranked). So a large majority of Franklin’s losses to top ten teams have come at the hands of Ohio State. He would be 3-12 against Top Ten teams if he did not play the Buckeyes. Still not great, but a little more respectable. 

It is interesting to look at his record against teams ranked higher. He was 4-19 against higher ranked teams. And you might be tempted to think well yeah, those were his top ten match-ups, right? Wrong. Many of those top ten losses, he was ranked higher (look at this year’s loss to Oregon, they were 6th, while Penn State was 3rd). I think that is the more troubling statistic. Especially when you look at his record against the Top 11-25: 12-7, but again, of those wins, only one team was ranked higher (Wisconsin, I think they were #12 whereas PSU was #19 to start the year).

It is hard to say what went wrong during those games against higher ranked opponents. Did he second-guess himself? Did he tend to go more conservative? Those are all possibilities. It always felt like that was the case against Ohio State. I think James Franklin is a fantastic recruiter, and a great coach (like the actual coaching of players). He has strong character, and he deeply cares. But, I think the piece he is lacking is strategy. I do not think he is a great strategist. Head coaches are like generals (calm down military people, I am not saying a head coach IS a general, or that they have the same responsibilities, or they have to lead men into real battle), and the great coaches/generals are all brilliant strategists. I would bet, some of the great coaches are also very good chess players (or some other strategy game), just like most generals.

And look, this is not a knock on Franklin. There are plenty of great coaches out there who suck at strategy. Watch enough college football and you will see these guys make boneheaded decisions, but they get away with it due to the sheer talent of their players (I am looking at you Ryan Day!). I think you see the strategy aspect more in NFL coaches, and you definitely see how bad college coaches are at it when they make the transition (specifically clock management–but also field positioning, and thinking of the longer game–college coaches can generally just dominate with their better players and this stuff does not matter to them when they are winning 63-3). 

Identity
Another aspect of Franklin’s failure is the lack of true identity as a team. Minus being LinebackerU, what kind of offense do you associate with James Franklin? I mean, we had new offensive coordinators every year or two, and it always felt like they were bringing a different offensive mindset to the team. Weirdly, all the DCs seemed to be in general agreement with what Penn State’s defensive identity was going to be (I am sure some folks will point out that Manny Diaz and Tom Allen ran different schemes, or that Brent Pry was more focused on speed versus power…but whatever, it is hard to look at the defense over the last 12 years and go “oh wow, that team was totally different!”). 

Unfortunately the offense never seemed to have that identity. Franklin recruited tons of talented players, but there was never a clue how to use them all together. If you are going to a mobile quarterback, with plenty of RPOs like they were with Trace McSorley, then you need to have the personnel to make that work. If you are building teams with that type of QB in mind, then you look for certain types of receivers and lineman. When the offense would struggle some years, it always seemed to me that this was the cause. Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

This all felt quite evident with Drew Allar. Andy Kotelnicki comes in as an OC who is used to having a dual-threat QB. Probably why he leaned so heavily on Tyler Warren to do everything. Also why it felt more natural when Beau Pribula came in to the game. This is nothing against Drew. I just do not think he was right for this offense. This is also why the offense suffered under Mike Yurcich (remember, his high-tempo offense at Oklahoma State with Mason Rudolph…I feel like that type of offense needs to be built differently than say one that relies on RPOs, they both seem similar, but my guess is you need certain types of players to make each one work well, and they are not the same types). 

The only thing all of these teams had in common was great Tight Ends. Franklin was a TE coach early in his career. I wonder if that helped him have an eye for talent? Also a failing of the Yurcich system (they did not really use TEs at Oklahoma State, they had a position called Cowboy Back, and they were different). But, he did not have those here, and so he had no real use for Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson, and a very young Tyler Warren. I remember watching games and seeing nothing working in the pass game, and texting my brother “why do we have these great TEs if we are never going to use them? Have them run some crossing routes and pick up some yardage! Eventually that will help free up some guys down field.” It was a frustrating time. And yet, do you see where I am going with this? No offensive identity, a revolving door of OCs because Franklin could not articulate to candidates what he wanted from his offense, and then pick the person who best fit that mold. Obviously I have no clue if this is true, it just feels right, ya know?

Letdown Games
My friend, James, reminded me of this the other day. James Franklin has a habit of losing a game after a big game. Like how he lost to UCLA after Oregon. At first, I thought he was crazy, but then I started thinking about it…and guess what?
2025: #6 Oregon then UCLA
2021: #3 Iowa then Illinois
2018: #4 Ohio State then Michigan State
2017: #6 Ohio State then Michigan State
2015: #1 Ohio State then Maryland…okay this one is not fair, they actually beat Maryland 31-30, but they were losing going into the 4th quarter. Maryland was 2-5.

I think Franklin preached a 1-0 mindset (do not think about the previous week, or the next week, just focus on winning this week). Unfortunately, I think he and his teams (especially from 2017 on), knew just how important Ohio State was each year, and the letdown of losing crushed them. And he was not able to get the team back up for the next week. Losing those games always felt like the season was over. 

We also need to talk about the 2020 season. Yeah, the COVID year. There was a lot of crap surrounding that year, so I will give Franklin a pass. But, when the season finally did start, there were very high expectations for Penn State. They went 11-2 the year before, and they looked poised to be one of the top teams in the country. They came into the year ranked #8. Then they lost to Indiana. On the worst call imaginable (MICHAEL PENIX WAS NOT IN!!!!!). They then lost to Ohio State the next week, and lost the next three. It just felt like after that Indiana loss, the team realized they could not beat Ohio State, and what was the point after that? It was ugly (now, I give Franklin a pass that season because of COVID–Micah Parsons sat out, Coach Franklin was not big on starting the season, I think he had to stay quarantined because one of his kids was immunocompromised). So yeah, I give him a pass. He was dealing with some insanity that year. BUT, there is a trend. The team puts their entire season on a single game, then they lose, and the team just shuts down, and Franklin is not able to pull them out of that abyss. 

Conclusion
These are the things that I have thought about for years in regards to Franklin and the state of the program. I cannot stress this enough, this is all just speculation. I am not an expert. Here is what I do know though. James Franklin knows football. You will read tons of comments from fans saying that he is an idiot who knows nothing about coaching or about the game. That is dumb. You do not get to this level without having deep knowledge of the game. 

There are plenty of assistants out there who think they are ready to be head coaches, and then they get the opportunity, and you can see they are just in over their heads. This is not James Franklin. He is a head coach. He is a great leader. He will go somewhere else and do quite well. But the expectation at Penn State is competing for a national championship, and Coach James Franklin is just not that guy to get us over that hump and to the next level.